In the US all eyes are on the midterms in November which will the first big electoral test for Trump since he won WH2016 nearly two years ago.
Overnight there was a special election in Ohio in a congressional district won by Trump with a 12% margin two years ago. The Republicans hung on but the margin was less than 1%.
The President had invested an enormous amount in the race and while he’ll be pleased by the victory the margin suggests that GOP control of the House of Representatives in November is in doubt.
This is reflected in the Betfair exchange House majority market shown above. The swing in Ohio was a fair bit greater than that which most national polls are suggesting.
Trump is a great turnout driver for both his party and, alas, his opponents. Losing one arm of the legislature would greatly impede his policy agenda.
All the House seats are up in November whilst only about a third of the Senate seats will have elections.