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The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

The Republicans are just holding on by fractions in the latest Georgia runoffs’ polling

The above polling averages charts from Nate Silver’s site show the tightness of the two Senate runoff races that will be held on January 5th. If the Republican lose both then the Democrats will control the Senate, the House and, of course the Presidency. These runoffs are happening because in November neither election was won by someone with 50% of the vote. Georgia, of course, was a surprise win for Biden in the White House race So much is at…

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A Trump branded TV channel being by the end of next month?

A Trump branded TV channel being by the end of next month?

I expect on the day of Biden’s inauguration Trump will do something spectacular, whilst I wouldn’t rule out Trump nuking Iran just before power transfers to Biden, I do expect something political. One of these things might be Trump announcing his intention to run for the GOP nomination in 2024 but if he might (also) announce plans for a Trump television channel. You can imagine Trump ranting about the fake news, lamestream media that hasn’t investigated Biden’s cheating, so that’s…

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Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs

Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs

We are all aware of the mighty election battle that takes place in Georgia on January 5th in the runoff elections that could determine whether the Republicans or the Democrats control the Senate. If the Republicans hold the seats then they retain a majority. If the Democratic party wins both seats then with the casting vote of the Vice President, Kamala Harris they will have control albeit by narrowest of margins. Yet as the Washington Post notes for the Republicans…

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In other news

In other news

There’s been a lot going on recently, what with the resurgence of Covid-19, the new lockdown, the US elections and French terror attacks.  What else has been going on that might be important but which might have escaped your attention?  Lots, obviously.  Here are three things that deserve more attention than they’re getting. 1 – Armenia has lost control of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia and Azerbaijan have vied for control of Nagorno-Karabakh (an enclave within Azerbaijan that is ethnically majority…

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Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday

As Maine goes, so goes the nation? I suspect apart from the senate result Maine won’t be high on the priorities of election watchers on Tuesday as the common consent is that Biden should win the state easily (he’s currently around 1/7 on Betfair to win Maine.) So why all eyes on Maine, no not because of the fantastic lobsters Maine offers but because  Maine will be the first state ever to use ranked choice voting for a Presidential election. The form…

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Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Why this isn’t looking like 2016 redux

Another example of why 2020 is unlike 2016? The betting markets are baffling to some, if the polls were reversed and Trump had the leads Biden currently has Trump’s odds on Betfair would be something close to 1.01 as opposed to Biden’s 1.5. But there’s plenty of indicators 2020 is not like 2016, like the charts above. My view is that the Dems are on course to retain the House, if they do that my hunch is that Biden also…

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