I am still digesting today’s results but it is clear the old political duopoly is over, from a betting perspective the next general election might be the one where UNS falls apart completely. Exciting time for punters. TSE
We’re just under halfway through all the councils declaring and so far it is a stunning performance by Reform. Nigel Farage must feel like Napoleon after the Battle of Austerlitz. As a Tory I went in with very low expectations for the Tories but this is much lower than my worst expectations, yesterday feels like another staging post in the Tory eclipse by Reform. I suspect Badenoch will come under more pressure than Starmer after these results. I hope Reform’s…
I’ve only just woken up so not had time to properly analyse the early results but the by-election shows why every little helps when it comes to winning. TSE
The Telegraph are reporting that The Conservatives are anticipating that they will lose control of all the councils they are defending in Thursday’s local elections. A confidential memo to Kemi Badenoch, seen by the Telegraph, predicts that the Tories will lose up to 770 seats and all the mayoral elections that are taking place. The document said that the Conservatives expect Reform UK to pick up 500 seats and win the Runcorn by-election, with the Tories slumping to third. The party puts…
I am expecting a very good night for Reform tonight and an equally bad night for the Tories and the market will respond, which might make the Tories and Labour a bit of value if their prices crater. Kemi Badenoch must be feeling like H.H. Asquith and Herbert Samuel, leaders of the Liberal Party as their party was eclipsed by the Labour Party. TSE
TSE
I know this is a Trafalgar but it does the issues facing America which sees Marjorie Taylor Greene winning the Republican primary race for the Senate seat then losing in the actual election to the Democratic Party candidate and incumbentJon Ossoff. The write up of the poll is here and the data tables are here. TSE
Tomorrow sees the first by-election of this parliament and it has the potential to be quite seismic if Reform win or to a lesser extent Labour hold on. One of the reasons I’ve not covered this by-election as much as I wanted to is that there’s been no real value in the markets, looking at the Reform vote share market at Ladbrokes there could be value in backing the 8/1 on Reform getting between 45% and 49.99%. Based on the…