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Martyn Ziegler in The Times has this little piece that might explain why Sunak called a July election Rishi Sunak will be hoping that England do well at Euro 2024 because an early exit could be the final nail in the coffin of his dying government. A general election will take place during a major tournament for the first time since 1970 and research carried out by the political scientists has suggested that incumbents get a lift from positive feelings…

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I like this analysis by Ben Walker which shows how close the Tories are to a 1931 in reverse result, which notes ‘Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.’ Not only are we a small polling error away from a 1931 in reverse type of result even if the polls do not narrow as they usually do during the campaign. When you…

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It is with great delight I can annonce Sporting Index have opened the seat spreads for the general election. I think Labour are a sell at the moment based on 1997 simply because we might see a rogue/outlier poll or two. In 1997 nine days before election day the gold standard ICM had the Labour lead down to 5%. It might be wiser to buy the Tories, I haven’t fully decided yet. It is not unknown for pollsters to tweak…

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The magic number required to oust Rishi Sunak is not the 52 letters to trigger a vote of confidence in him but the 173 Tory MPs required to vote against Sunakm the chance of the latter happening is as infetismal a Boris Johnson being a declared husband of the century. The general election is taking place on the fourth of July, the sooner these Tory MPs accept that the better, if their plan does work do they really want cancer…

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Longtime readers of PB know much Mike Smithson and I value leader satisfaction ratings. Whilst Starmer’s ratings aren’t historically impressive that really doesn’t matter when Sunak’s and the government’s rating are so dire. Sunak’s decision to call a July election today may turn out to be a date which will live in infamy. TSE

Looking at that polling table it is quite a courageous decision by Rishi Sunak to hold an election with the Tories so far behind in the polls but I am not complaining as I tipped a July election at 20s a few weeks ago. TSE

I tipped July 2024 as the month of the election at 20s a few weeks ago is now down to 2.04. I feel content. TSE

Ladbrokes have a market on who wil the CNN debate scheduled for the end of June and I can see no value in this market. I suspect the response will be a plague on both your houses as the debate will be a bit of a disorganised poo-show and that could lead to either side winning. TSE