I expect the polls to change. You expect the polls to change. But there's been so much abnormality this past year and a bit when it comes to public opinion that we now need to seriously consider they won't.https://t.co/XUtX3xRR2O

— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) May 23, 2024

I like this analysis by Ben Walker which shows how close the Tories are to a 1931 in reverse result, which notes ‘Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.’

Not only are we a small polling error away from a 1931 in reverse type of result even if the polls do not narrow as they usually do during the campaign. When you add in tactical voting the Tories are deep in trouble.

Following my advice yesterday to either sell Labour seats or buy Tory seats there has been a fifteen seat movement in the mid price.

TSE