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Author: TSE

Dave should remember this polling before he decides to withdraw from the debates

Dave should remember this polling before he decides to withdraw from the debates

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  There’s a report in the Independent this morning which says Amid increasing signs that the Conservatives would pull the plug on televised leaders’ debates if Mr Farage was included, the UKIP leader said he would be prepared to challenge efforts to stop him taking part in the courts. From January this year, there was polling on the debates that should make the Conservatives wary of pulling the plug on the debates. There’s a new poll out tonight by ComRes for…

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PB Night Hawks is now open

PB Night Hawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’re Hungry Like The Wolf for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place on Planet Earth for political betting. If you’ve always been a lurker, and have The Reflex not to post,  Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, don’t worry, you won’t become Wild Boys or Wild Girls after posting. The…

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Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

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  I expect Labour to win most seats at the next general election and for Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister. The bookies make it the most likely event but not a certainty. They price it as a 1/2 shot that Labour will return the most MPs at the next election and 4/6 that Ed Miliband makes it to 10 Downing Street. This is not a universal view by any stretch of the imagination. So what happens if Labour falls…

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If there were a Newark by-election…

If there were a Newark by-election…

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The major breaking news this lunchtime is Newark MP Patrick Mercer resigning the Tory whip following an investigation by the Telegraph and Panorama. In his statement, Mercer says “I am taking legal advice about these allegations – and I have referred myself to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. My thoughts on the immediate consequences for this are at first, there’s probably one less letter demanding a leadership vote in the Tory party now which will bring a smile to David Cameron’s…

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Ipsos Mori Issues Index for May

Ipsos Mori Issues Index for May

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The Ipsos-Mori issues index for May is out now, the fieldwork finished nearly a fortnight ago, on the 19th of May. To put the current month’s index into context, here is the long term trends over the last sixteen years. As Mike tweeted last night The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2013 Given the current increase in support…

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Great Britain as a multi-party state

Great Britain as a multi-party state

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  If the opinion polls hold up then at the next election we’ll have four parties polling at least 10% of the vote for the first time in almost a century (the last and only time it previously occurred was in 1918, with the two Liberal factions alongside the Conservatives and Labour all achieving double figures, with 1922 being the only other election to come close). So what would this new state of affairs look like? In deference to Harry…

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YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown

YouGov polling on how Ed Miliband compares to Gordon Brown

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New PB thread on Ed vs Gordon pollingwww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2013 There’s some polling by YouGov for The Times (££) which has attracted headlines such as “Voters trust Miliband less than Brown”, but analysing the figures the results aren’t as bad for Ed and Labour as it first appears The Brown figures are from May 2010, shortly after polling day, whilst Ed’s figures have just been carried out. Here are the results More voters thought that…

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PB Night hawks is now open

PB Night hawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation As we enter the Twilight Zone of Wednesday, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, Get Ready for This thread, as it gives you an opportunity to delurk, I’m hoping there will be No Limit to the number of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the…

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