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Author: TSE

Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

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What if the referendum outcome triggered Cameron’s departure? A few months ago, there was speculation that if Scotland votes Yes, then David Cameron would resign as Prime Minister, that speculation has amped up in recent days. The Sunday Times reported “several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand David Cameron quit and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there was a “yes” vote.” Whilst I still have my doubts that David…

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YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

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YouGov #indyref poll is out, YES IS AHEAD (changes since last poll) Exc DKs Yes 51% (+4) No 49% (-4) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll Labour voters switching to Salmond in droves. 35% now back independence up from 18% a month ago — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll: Every age group now backing independence except the over 60s. Women, the rich, the poor all switching to Salmond — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 As ever…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Election 2015 is a race neither Labour nor the Tories are fit to win For every Labour voter who shifts to UKIP, two or three Tories shift too Miliband’s message to…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

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Clacton poll by @LordAshcroft has UKIP 56% (+56%) Con 24% (-29%) Lab 16% (-9.1%) LD 2% (-10.9%) Others 2% (-75) Changes since the 2010 GE — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has published his poll on the Clacton by-election, which is to be held on the 9th of October, which is David Cameron’s birthday, like the survation poll, it shows Douglas Carswell comfortably winning for UKIP, the polling on him personally shows why he is course to become…

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PB Nighthawks is open

PB Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) YouGov have updated their methodology.  YouGov have also launched a new polling innovation. And this is the first result of their new polling innovation. US poised to ask Britain to join…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A do-it-yourself election prediction kit. What’s going to happen if Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in May?.. What we can learn from the list of UKIP target seats Boris Johnson confirms…

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ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

ComRes online poll sees Lab lead down one to two – But are the Tories losing their toxicity?

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The ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out.  Is the Tories’ toxicity no longer an issue? ComRes note “the poll’s Favourability Index finds that the Conservative Party is viewed more favourably than Labour for the first time, suggesting that the Tory brand is now seen as no more “toxic” than the Labour one.” On a net basis, the Blues and Reds are tied, as ever this is just one poll, and we’ll need to…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) How Harry Potter has influenced the political values of the Millennial generation. Reading the books correlated with higher political tolerance, less predisposition to authoritarianism, greater support for equality, and greater opposition to…

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