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Author: TSE

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

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There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS.   The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…

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Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

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Rochester & Strood byelection odds: 2/5 UKIP 3/1 Cons 8/1 Labour — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 28, 2014   My initial thinking is to back the Tories and Labour, based on the following tweets last night, and well Labour could come through the middle. Hopefully other bookies will open markets on this by election. No 10 source on the Mark Reckless byelection: "We would hope to win it" — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 27, 2014 (Significant because No10 don't say that about…

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As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

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Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…

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It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

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Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.  For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…

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Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

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Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…

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Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

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The two topics Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public’s top two issues, unsurprisingly, Defence/Foreign Affairs/Terrorism is the biggest riser. The @IpsosMORI issues index for September. The 2 issues Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public's top 2 issues pic.twitter.com/oE54vkmHTx — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 26, 2014 The first Ipsos-Mori issues index was published forty years ago, here’s what the issues were back in September 1974 The first @IpsosMORI issues index was published forty years ago, here's…

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UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days

UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days

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The betting angle as rumours emerge of 2 more Tory MPs defecting to UKIP http://t.co/aA3iDG9kEl pic.twitter.com/oxsEIjo4DT — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 25, 2014 Today reports emerged that Senior UKIP figures are claiming two more Tory MPs are ‘in the bag’ and will be unveiled as defectors within days. To the alarm of Conservative HQ, Ukip party secretary Matthew Richardson has boasted privately that two turncoats have agreed to switch parties, according to two separate sources.  Mr Richardson has told colleagues…

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Corporeal on constitutional reform

Corporeal on constitutional reform

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If there’s a consistent tradition in British constitutional reform, it’s a philosophy of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” (and usually to make the fix a patch up of the specific problem, or what Toby Fenwick dubbed an ‘inelegant fudge’). If you wanted to squeeze it into a metaphor (always fun) then it is a long-standing mansion. Ancient in parts, with extensions and alterations added through the years. Bits have been built, rebuilt, done up knocked down, expanded, downsized,…

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