Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton. I expect the Labour supporters…
My latest article Are manufactured public spats in both coalition partners' interest? http://t.co/aLo8D5uXjc pic.twitter.com/WBbsRl9QdC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 3, 2014 Surely the Lib Dems can’t go on like this polling in the single digits? I’ve always been optimistic on the Lib Dems doing well in 2015, and the Ashcroft marginals polling in the past shows them doing better in the seats they hold than the national polling would suggest. My expectation for 2014 was if we started seeing the…
The changes are from the 2010 General Election I think Labour will be relieved and delighted with this comfortable hold and increase on their 2010 share of the vote, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories. All the odds on Heywood and Middleton are available here. But the major polling news this evening is this Tonight's Sun/YouGov has the Tories ahead for the first…
PaddyPower now make the Cons favourite to win the Rochester by-election. UKIP evens, CON 5/6 http://t.co/1j2fiIYXxK pic.twitter.com/mgbt8ZGZNA — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 2, 2014 In spite of any publicly available polling, punters’ money is backing the Tories. With Paddy Power, William Hill the Tories are the favourites now, whilst at Betfair and Ladbrokes it is neck and neck between UKIP and the Tories, The Tories were 3/1 on Sunday when these markets opened. My thoughts on why this is are…
At Last, A Real Tory Premier: our splash tomorrow on Cameron's tax offer to middle Britain #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/78V1Qq5CL4 — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 1, 2014 Thursday's Telegraph – "Cameron gives 30m a tax cut" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #cpc14 pic.twitter.com/hcGFKpO8lH — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) October 1, 2014 But YouGov gives a Lab 2% boost. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) October 1, 2014 I’d…
Memo to Nigel: I don’t think the journalists who have been dragged to Gloucestershire will be impressed. You should always under promise and over deliver. UKIP's new donor's now giving £1m, not the £100k he originally planned. "Thank you very much," says Nigel Farage. https://t.co/PBw0hMRjZ3 — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 1, 2014 Aaron Banks suggests he's giving UKIP 10 times as much as planned because Tories were rude about him — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) October 1, 2014 The hacks will…
It would appear tax cuts, the NHS, don’t let Labour ruin it and vote Nigel and get Ed is the Tory strategy for 2015. COMMENT Like it or not, DC hit the spot this year in a way that EM didn't. UKIP is a vote for Labour line loud and clear. — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) October 1, 2014 Cameron doing well today…touching all the issues….and attempting to set the battle lines…Miliband will have to respond…. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft)…
As Cameron's big speech, rumours emerge of a 3rd MP defecting at 5pm http://t.co/KV1CuwLK9T … pic.twitter.com/naCD1zapXY — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 1, 2014 Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 1, 2014 TSE