— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 2, 2014
In spite of any publicly available polling, punters’ money is backing the Tories.
With Paddy Power, William Hill the Tories are the favourites now, whilst at Betfair and Ladbrokes it is neck and neck between UKIP and the Tories, The Tories were 3/1 on Sunday when these markets opened.
My thoughts on why this is are as follows
- Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood
- The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end.
- The Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech is expected to see the Tory vote rise in the polls.
- I expect we will see the “Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed” meme tested to destruction here (to see if it works)
But as Mike Smithson noted the other day “My understanding is that UKIP polling in Rochester & Strood before defection had double figure lead with Reckless as candidate.”
So backing UKIP might well be the value here now in the absence of any publicly available polling.
The best price you can get on UKIP right now is 11/10.