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Author: TSE

With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

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1/ Public opinion has drifted slightly against Brexit. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/yaBm2gLrEP — YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018 2/ While Theresa May comes in for constant criticism over the Brexit negotiations, few Brits (22-27%) actually think that a different leader would have done any better https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/RbjRgKG31O — YouGov (@YouGov)…

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Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

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Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns I’m not sure when the next general election is, I can see the next general election happening anywhere from this autumn to May 2022. You can see how the Brexit negotiations and votes therein can lead to an early election. I’m fairly certain the Tories…

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If you think Beto O’Rourke is going to win Texas in November then these might make for good bets

If you think Beto O’Rourke is going to win Texas in November then these might make for good bets

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The Dems winning Texas in a Presidential election changes the electoral maths. In recent times Texas has been a safe banker for the GOP but demographics are trending back to the Dems, so what might help tip the balance is if the Dems choose a native son or daughter to be their nominee. If you think Beto O’Rourke is going to win his Senate battle this autumn then looking at him being a future Presidential nominee seems logical. Tying up…

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The Daily Mail’s change of tone Brexit should help Mrs May sell her Brexit deal

The Daily Mail’s change of tone Brexit should help Mrs May sell her Brexit deal

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Something feels different about the headlines in today's Daily Mail pic.twitter.com/LCFgwnOrlu — Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) September 12, 2018 At this rate the Daily Mail will soon be backing another referendum. Daily Mail backs May's Brexit plan and brands rebel Tories 'traitors'Editorial laments plotting by Brexiter Conservatives against PM as apparent ‘death wish’. https://t.co/95z3ppHkOZ pic.twitter.com/3RUPaZupRB — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 13, 2018 Welcome to this Bizarro world where in the eyes of the Daily Mail traitors are the hard Brexiteers. The tweets…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and who do they think they are?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Who are the centrists and who do they think they are?

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On the latest episode of the PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss some recent polling by Opinium that looks at where Brits place themselves of the left-right political scale, who classes themselves as ‘centrist’ and what they think it means. Follow this week’s podcasters: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Some Brexit betting specials

Some Brexit betting specials

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As we get closer to Brexit day Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up. The ERG have repeatedly shown themselves to be as impotent as eunuchs, so for all the talk of ousting Mrs May they simply don’t have the numbers so I think out of those bets Mrs May still being PM on the 1st of April 2019 is the best one. I wouldn’t want to touch the 11/5 on another EU referendum before the 1st of April with…

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Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

Who will be Time person of the year 2018?

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I’ve been looking at William Hill’s market on who will be the Time person of the year and my tip is out of that lot is Robert Mueller at 25/1. With several convictions, guilty pleas, and assorted plea deals the so called witch hunt is rather effective and hunting down witches. All of this explains Trump’s recent behaviour where he has publicly criticised Jeff Sessions and privately been annoyed at FBI Director James Wray makes me think we’re headed for…

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Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble

Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble

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Picture credit @DelMody on twitter “Vote Leave, Take Back Control” was the slogan.  This conjured up a vision of a democratic army peacefully occupying Downing Street and resetting the priorities of government to be aligned with the needs of everyday people.  The vision turned out to be a fata Morgana.  The referendum was won by Leave but poor people didn’t rise up and take what’s theirs.  Rather more surprisingly, rich Leavers didn’t rise up and take what’s theirs either.  Some…

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