Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns
- I’m not sure when the next general election is, I can see the next general election happening anywhere from this autumn to May 2022. You can see how the Brexit negotiations and votes therein can lead to an early election.
- I’m fairly certain the Tories will have a new leader in place for the election, who this will be I’m less sure about who this will be.
- There’s a not so insignificant chance that Jeremy Corbyn is not the Labour leader at the next election. (FYI – If Corbyn quits it will be entirely his own choice).
- If there are mass defections from Labour to create a new party/SDP 2.
- Brexit and a no deal Brexit in particular having the potential to do the Tory party’s reputation what the Winter of Discontent did to the Labour party for so long.
- Assuming the Tory party cannot run an election campaign as badly as they did last time. Then you remember that Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are considered potential successors and then you can envisage the Tories running a worse campaign than 2017.
So when you consider all of those variables you can understand my reluctance to bet on this market. Perhaps you can persuade me which option to back but I suspect this is one of those markets where the profitable choice is not to bet.
If I was forced to choose I’d take the 33/1 on Labour polling sub 20%, that seems a good proxy bet if there was a split in Labour which saw the emergence of a new party.