The fundamentals and history still favour Trump and punters agree
I think there’s some value in backing Harris at these prices as this is still a 50/50 race, we shall find out in twenty one days. TSE
A potentially awkward start for the new Tory leader
The Times are reporting Up to a dozen Conservative MPs are considering standing down before the next election because of Labour’s imminent clampdown on second jobs. Senior party sources told The Times that they expected “a drip of resignations” to begin after the Tory leadership contest, starting in the new year. Those who served in Rishi Sunak’s government and who were passed over for senior shadow cabinet roles are said to be most likely to quit. One former cabinet minister…
I agree with Sir John Curtice
TSE
Alex Salmond has died
I would place Alex Salmond in the top five consequential politicians of my lifetime, he transformed Scottish Nationalism from a minor past time to a near majority in Scotland. It is often forgotten that Scottish devolution was set up to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead and also to ensure no party won a majority at Holyrood, both allusions he smashed in 2007 and 2011 respectively. Alex Salmond was a regular reader of PB and once quoted Mike Smithson and PB…
The cunning and awesomeness of Robert Jenrick
The Independent reports this utterly magnificent operation from Robert Jenrick and his team James Cleverly was eliminated from the Tory leadership race because Robert Jenrick’s team ruthlessly targeted his supporters “who hated Kemi Badenoch”, The Independent can reveal. The former home secretary looked to have been a certainty for the final two of the contest to go to Conservative members when the penultimate set of results were announced on Tuesday, putting him eight ahead of the previous frontrunner Mr Jenrick. With Mr Jenrick just one vote…
Despite things going suboptimally so far Labour still has the benefit of the doubt
I suspect the budget at the end of the month will change the narrative one way or the other for the Starmer government, Rachel Reeves will need to deliver. TSE
Spread betting on the White House race
Sporting Index have opened their spreads on the White House race. I am a huge fan of spread betting but I realise this isn’t for everybody as you can lose substantially more than your stake but spread betting is political betting loins are girded. I’ve said for a while is that if Trump wins it will be a narrow win in the electoral college but if Harris wins it will be big victory in the electoral college so I would…
Fifty years ago today
Had Rishi Sunak waited for a November election then PB and the media would have been focussing on the fact that it would have been fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won an election. Another fun fact about the 1974 October election is that it is the last time Labour increased the number of seats it won whilst in government, something the Tories have achieved three times in the same time frame. I was born after…