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One of things that I find hard to call when it comes to the next election is whether there will be de facto/de jure alliances between the various parties and whether it will work. I don’t think there’s any automaticity in adding the scores of parties together an assume that’s the score they will receive. If Reform appear to be a party full of Tory retreads or Tory backed then I suspect they will lose support from previously Labour aligned…

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Following his defection last week the Danny Kruger effect has led to Ladbrokes putting up a market on which serving Tory MP will next defect to Reform, the screen shot above doesn’t show all the potential contenders, for example you could get 100/1 on Kemi Badenoch being the next Tory MP to defect. I would avoid this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market, I am interested in the market on a Labour MP defecting to Reform….

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I am not somebody who is backing Andy Burnham to become next Prime Minister or Labour leader before a 2028/29 general election as I think the possibility of him becoming an MP before then is remote. The possibility became even remoter with the news that Andrew Gwynne will not stand down for Burnham. Perhaps I am missing something really obvious on how Burnham becomes next Prime Minister, if Starmer makes it to the next election then on current polling Nigel…

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This is not a good look for the SNP but come next May it won’t make much difference at the ballot box. What I find utterly perplexing is that this incident was caused by a debate about out of control seagulls. TSE

Last September I tipped Ed Miliband to succeed Sir Keir Starmer at 100/1, as per John Rentoul’s tweets I am feeling rather content. You can back Ed Miliband as next PM at 21s on Betfair and 11.5s as next Labour leader, you can get 25/1 and 50/1 respectively at Ladbrokes, I think both those prices at Ladbrokes represent an excellent opportunity for profit. In March of this year I pointed out that Ed Miliband was impressing Labour members which should…

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This really is an inauspicious start. Words like organise, brewery, and micturate come to mind. I suspect the lawyers will be getting rich over this fiasco, if you have signed up for this contact your bank/financial institution. UPDATE – Sultana’s response makes the situation even more murky. TSE

Strictly speaking Sir Ed Davey is the country’s least unpopular party GB wide leader. Longstanding readers know why Mike Smithson and myself prefer the net ratings simply because it indicates the potential for tactical voting. 71% of the public have an unfavourable rating of Starmer, which is much higher than Nigel Farage which means Labour might not be able to attract tactical votes if Starmer remains as leader at the election. TSE

I agree with the public, it would give us a fascinating by-election. The by-election could see any of four parties winning the by-election which would give us a fascinating betting opportunity. TSE