When betting on elections outside of America we might now have to start considering the impact of Donald Trump in those elections. We could see some Populist Right party leading in the polls in the UK for years then in the run up to say a 2028 UK general election and Donald Trump could have a real go at Sir Keir Starmer and the UK which leads to an even bigger Labour landslide than in 2024. TSE
It was the economy which won Donald Trump the presidency last year but the way things are going then it won’t be long until Americans start comparing him to a lettuce. TSE
This chart fom Ipsos explains why the Tories and Labour are polling somewhere near/below the test batting average of Geraint Jones. If young/middle aged people are no continually priced out of the housing market then Labour and the Tories will struggle at the ballot box. TSE
I must confess I am a little surprised by this polling, my expectation was that Nigel Farage is seen as an asset by Reform voters but this finding by YouGov will leave Farage feeling sicker than a cyclist with piles. In January there was a poll showing that Nigel Farage had better ratings with Reform voters than Rupert Lowe but this YouGov poll shows that expectation by me was wrong, this could be the consequences of the Rupert Lowe suspension….
I think the value is with Labour but I wonder if the Reform rammy will not have an impact. I was thinking about the Lib Dems winning the the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006 despite the party falling apart at the time with Charles Kennedy ousted due to his drinking problem, and two two leadership contenders Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten mired in scandal, the latter was truly epic. We didn’t know it at the time but Chris…
I actually think the value might now actually be with Reform now in this most seats at the next election market. at the time of the next election, which is potentially over four years away, will the name Rupert Lowe really move votes in a way the traditional vote deciders such as the economy or the NHS? I have my doubts. With three parties in the 20s anything could happen under the very unfair first past the post voting system….
Rupert Lowe has debunked the allegations against him and it looks like bad news for Nigel Farage, things could get very messy and I cannot say any way back for Rupert Lowe, if I were him, would I really want to work with these people? Ladbrokes have a market on whether Farage will be replaced as Reform leader in 2025, I cannot see any real value in either side given how febrile things are but PBers may disagree. TSE
I try and avoid being smug but seeing Nigel Farage’s chances fall in the next Prime Minister market is great news for myself and those people who followed my advice to lay Nigel Farage in this market. If Farage is on course to win the next general election then I expect Starmer will stand down and be replaced somebody from the Labour party who will become our next PM before the election. There’s also a non zero chance that the…