Trump admits his polling is very bad
TSE
Si vis pacem, para bellum
I never thought I would live in a world that America would be a risk to the West but that’s where we are now. As PBer Boulay noted on the previous thread ‘I saw [the plan to pull Italy, Austria, Poland, and Hungary away from the EU] earlier with an accompanying map and it was stark how by trying to disrupt Poland, Austria and Hungary it creates a very helpful buffer for Russia to try and spread its tentacles westwards.’…
It’s looking like ajockalypse now for Labour
I am not sure there’s any value in these markets. A market I would like to see is if the SNP win a majority or not. TSE
I beg your pardons
TSE
Meanwhile in America
Next year one of the major political betting markets will the be the American midterms and last night’s results do indicate it will be a humiliating night for the Republicans but a lot can happen in a year but if Trump keeps on denying the cost of living crisis then I suspect it will get worse for the Republicans. TSE
The Tory scorpion and Kemi the frog
We should all be familiar with the fable of The Scorpion and the Frog, looking at the above chart above it is the Tory nature to dispose of their leaders pretty quickly this millennium unless you’re an exceptional talent like David Cameron. Whilst Kemi Badenoch’s ratings are improving what will force Tory MPs to oust her are these facts When you consider how badly Sir Keir Starmer, Labour, and Rachel Reeves are doing in the polls where they are outdoing…
Spot the outlier
It feels like on social media the poll that gets most attention each week is the Find Out Now poll because they are the pollster who are consistently showing Labour doing the worst. Being an outlier doesn’t mean there’s an automaticity on being wrong, for in the 1990s and early 2000s ICM frequently produced polls which were outliers yet ICM were the most accurate pollster at the general elections. I have previously written on why I and others consider Find…
Ed Miliband’s chances of succeeding Starmer are sizzling like a bacon sarnie
An observation that was made to me earlier on this week is that everybody in the Labour party is acting like Sir Keir Starmer will not make it to the next general election, he may not even make it to the end of 2026. The polling is excellent for Ed Miliband but the alliance between Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner could be the game changer for the Health Secretary. TSE