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There are many reasons for not confidently predicting the outcome of the next election right now, I have mentioned them a few times on this website. For example there’s an awful long time to the next election, which could be nearly four and a half years away so a lot can change, first past the post can be cruel mistress and we could see utter anarchy with the results if three or four parties are polling in the early twenties/within…

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My expectation was for the Democrats to win control of the House in the 2026 midterms but looking at that first tweet then I am not so sure. The second tweet shows how the Democrats could win by default. Once the reality of tariffs hits the Americam average voter then I expect Trump and the Republican party will be rather unpopular by November 2026. TSE

TSE

Even if Labour slip to third place or lower and behind the Tories I suspect Tory MPs will get worried if they are still consistently behind Reform because that bodes ill for the long term. If the Tories remain behind both Reform & Labour then I think we reach a tipping point once it is confirmed in real elections. If Reform finish ahead of the Tories in both devolved elections next year then that’s curtains for Kemi Badenoch, you might…

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The revived plans for a third runway at Heathrow has brought out all the NIMBYs in London led by the mayor of London Sir Sadiq Khan. Looking ahead to the 2028 London mayoral election and I wonder if the announcement and resultant contretemps will damage Labour in this election with a mixture of those Labour NIMBYs annoyed at the plans whilst some will be outraged by Khan’s disloyalty. The election is held under first past the post now so it…

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Looking at this polling, which is in line with other polls, it is clear the public are unhappy with the current Brexit settlement. Last week there was talk that Kemi Badenoch may have to have a Khrushchev moment and denounce Liz Truss but a bigger moment where she has to denounce the Tory role in Brexit. Politicians often follow the lead of the public and it is clear rejoining the single market would be the minimum which would be a…

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Today’s More in Common fits in with the YouGov poll, really bad ratings for Starmer/Labour but Labour ahead of Reform and the Tories in a close and messy three way but for me the intriguing finding from this polling is how 2024 Tories and splitting on who would make the best PM. My immediate thought went back to the 2015 general election polling where plenty of people said they were voting Labour but preferred David Cameron as PM which fitted…

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I think polling confirms just how damaged the Tory brand has become. In the past a government with these poor approval ratings would expect to be trailing in the voting intention polls by substantial margins. The question is can Kemi Badenoch turn it around? I suspect it is beyond her and all other politicians in the parliamentary Conservative party. TSE