Before I saw this stat my intuition would have been the lower the turnout the better Reform would do but as we can see that’s clearly not the case. I would counsel against reading too much into this for the next general election, the next round of local elections in May (and the devolved ones too) if this pattern holds up. TSE
When I first read about John Swinney’s comment my first thought was about Josh Lyman coming up with a secret plan to fight inflation in The West Wing. I am quite intrigued to see what the plan is although it might be moot if the SNP do not reach 65 MSPs next year, only once in the previous six Holyrood elections has a party won a majority. I have previously called Swinney’s plans courageous because he’s going to look pretty…
TSE
Normally I would say getting criticised by the Trump administration would be a positive for most politicians in the UK but I don’t think Bridget Phillipson will benefit here. Unless she can provide some documentary evidence she’s going to look like a chump by the US Ambassador to Israel. In just under a fortnight we will find out if she’s won or lost, voting only opened four days ago so this could have an impact. The odds feel right. TSE
It’s only one poll but given the generally dire ratings Kemi Badenoch and her party experience this is something that needs to be cherished. I still think the Tories are going to be pummelled next May and that will trigger Badenoch’s exit despite her performance last week. TSE
I know I am not the only person who thinks Nigel Farage’s close relationship with Donald Trump might be a major reason Reform do worse than expected at the next election. Sir Keir Starmer’s relationship with Trump is transactional whilst Farage seems to be an enthusiastic backer of the economically illiterate, science denying, attack on the rule of law, culture wars that Trump espouses which doesn’t go down well with the majority of Brits. TSE
This poll isn’t surprising as people generally do not like taxes they have to pay. There appears to have been no boost to the Tories in last night’s locals. TSE
This polling probably explains why the Tories announced at their conference they would keep the triple lock until at least 2034. The United Kingdom is in danger of becoming a society where the workers keep transferring their wealth to the pensioner class, that long term isn’t sustainable. TSE