This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground. At the end of which, I will, probably, opine on what Trump’s chances are of becoming the first returning President since Grover…
The current PB server, which I shall call Icarus, has been doing excellent service for six years. But is now beginning to show its age. With this year having both US elections and UK elections, it’s time for an upgrade. I am a lot better system admin than I was when PB first started, so there’s at least a 50% chance that the server migration will happen without a hitch. It is, however, entirely possible that today will see a…
Parents usually have two wishes for their children: that they should neither be a politician nor a lawyer. And for good reason. Politicians are awfully unpopular people, and now more than ever. Indeed, if you look at the approval/disapproval ratings of political leaders around the world, you struggle to find any with positive ratings. Indeed, outside countries where the population are… nervous… to record their views about the leadership (*cough* Russia and Iran *cough*), there seems be only two examples…
Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency. Simply: Trump has gained share in States which are either Democratic strongholds (New York and California) or in places where he already has the delegates (Florida and the Deep South). By contrast, Trump and the Republicans have…
The collapse of Germany at the end of World War One was so sudden, and occurred without a yard of German soil being occupied by French, American or British troops, that a narrative sprung up: the country had not been defeated in battle, but had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy of financiers, freemasons and Jews. Something similar seems to be happening with memories of the Truss-Kwarteng administration. It didn’t fail, it was stabbed in the back for…
Where’s the betting value? There are four months until the next set of US elections. And midterms – normally – are not kind to the incumbent party. And that’s in normal times: this time around, you have an unpopular President lacking his predecessor’s hard core of support, and an unprecedented cost of living increase. The House is near certain to fall to the Republicans. But the Senate could be different. There are four crucial races, three are Democrat defences, and…
There is an election today, and it might be rather a consequential one. Yep: it’s the Republican Senate Primary in Ohio, and it’s going to give us an early glimpse into Trump’s ongoing popularity with ‘the base’. Because the three leading candidate represent the three different strands within the GOP: Firstly, there’s Trump (and family) themselves. This is represented by JD Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author, Peter Thiel acolyte, and onetime never-Trumper. Well… he’s the thrown his lot in with…
This sounds like a crazy question: but should the government introduce measures that require certain groups to pay if they wish to vote? One would hope that most people would answer “no”. But the reality is that requiring Photo ID is exactly the same as asking some people to pay to vote. Imagine two sets of queues at a polling station: one requires you to wait an hour in line, the other just 30 seconds. Now, allow people born between…