Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen. In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel. In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just…
We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead. Looking at these odds, what stand out to me is not that Trump is odds on (we can argue whether he or Biden should be narrow favorite), but just how big the gap. The polls remains pretty static: Biden and Trump are neck and neck. The Republicans have an advantage in the…
• See “The Wikipedia Elections Edit War”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVIl_DJl5NU INTRODUCTION During the Measurement series I have argued that concepts we believe to be universal and eternal are simply not. I discussed the limitations of political positions and the definition of elites, and those articles were fairly straightforward. But now let’s look at a thing that we all think we understand and yet don’t: the concept of a political party. THE LIST See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertas_Spain See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_List_(Italy) The simplest form of…
This is a three part piece. The first, today, looks at the existential threats that Trump faces that could derail him. The second looks at the national polling, at the third party challengers, and how parties have been performing in real elections. And the final piece looks at the swing states and what is happening on the ground. At the end of which, I will, probably, opine on what Trump’s chances are of becoming the first returning President since Grover…
The current PB server, which I shall call Icarus, has been doing excellent service for six years. But is now beginning to show its age. With this year having both US elections and UK elections, it’s time for an upgrade. I am a lot better system admin than I was when PB first started, so there’s at least a 50% chance that the server migration will happen without a hitch. It is, however, entirely possible that today will see a…
Parents usually have two wishes for their children: that they should neither be a politician nor a lawyer. And for good reason. Politicians are awfully unpopular people, and now more than ever. Indeed, if you look at the approval/disapproval ratings of political leaders around the world, you struggle to find any with positive ratings. Indeed, outside countries where the population are… nervous… to record their views about the leadership (*cough* Russia and Iran *cough*), there seems be only two examples…
Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency. Simply: Trump has gained share in States which are either Democratic strongholds (New York and California) or in places where he already has the delegates (Florida and the Deep South). By contrast, Trump and the Republicans have…
The collapse of Germany at the end of World War One was so sudden, and occurred without a yard of German soil being occupied by French, American or British troops, that a narrative sprung up: the country had not been defeated in battle, but had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy of financiers, freemasons and Jews. Something similar seems to be happening with memories of the Truss-Kwarteng administration. It didn’t fail, it was stabbed in the back for…