OK. For a moment, I want us all to play a game. This is a very useful management technique I’ve learned, and it’s called the premortem. What I want us to do is to imagine it’s December 2020, and President Trump is re-elected – what did we get wrong, what were the signs we missed? Here are my three ways we could be wrong: We didn’t pay enough attention to approval ratings. President Trump’s approval rating has been steadily improving….
Hi all, We’re moving PB over to a shiny, new server, with lots of additional chrome and bells and whistles and added security and all that lark. It’s highly likely there will be downtime in the next 12 hours. I’ll try and keep it to a minimum, but no promises. Thanks Robert
Sorry about the issues. Thanks, Robert
Hi all, We unfortunately need to do an emergency server migration, and so there will be some downtime Thanks, Robert
Looking at the changes in the US electorate There is no doubt that President Trump is keen to make the Presidential election a referendum on ‘woke’, on the topping of statues, and on the Democratic party being in hock to a far left faction. And recent did gift him some prize examples, the “awkward squad” of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan were all elected to the House…
The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night. Why? Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016….
Yes, all eyes are on the Presidency. But let us not forget that there are other national US elections taking place on November 3: the Senate and the House of Representatives. I’m not going to dwell on the House, where I think the Republicans will regain some ground, but not enough to take the Chamber back. Instead, let’s talk about the Senate. The current composition is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 Independents. The two Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus…
The most seductive words in the English language are it’s not your fault. Finding someone else to blame is human nature. We all love to be told that some rank bajin is responsible for whatever ills us. We don’t have to take responsibility for ourselves, if we can only blame someone else. This is why conspiracy theories thrive. Some shadowy figures were responsible and therefore we’re not to blame. The most successful people I know never blame others, even when…