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Author: MikeSmithson

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

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UKIP now within just 3% of the Tories Although Survation has become a major part of the UK polling scene since GE10 its standard Westminster voting surveys are only a small part of its output. Today, however, there’s a new poll for the Daily Mirror which could provide some relief for the Ed Miliband camp under siege after a day of leadership speculation. The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly…

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Big news from Westminster is that there are LAB calls for Ed Miliband to step down

Big news from Westminster is that there are LAB calls for Ed Miliband to step down

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BBC News says some LAB MPs have told chair of parliamentary party that EdM should stand down http://t.co/2SRcUMXoty pic.twitter.com/7be3uKBRWd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Is it worth a 6/1 bet? William Hill make it a 6/1 shot that Ed Miliband will go before GE15 http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Generally leaders hold on even in the most difficult of circumstances. With Labour it is even more complicated because the rules for getting rid of an incumbent make…

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LAB is still ahead in England which the Tories won at GE10 with a margin of 11.4 percent

LAB is still ahead in England which the Tories won at GE10 with a margin of 11.4 percent

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Could GE15 in England be like GE05 which the Tories won on votes but were 92 seats behind on seats CON 35.7% England vote: 194 MPS LAB 35.5% England vote: 286 MPs GE2005 from Commons Research paper. LAB loses to CON on votes in England but comes out with 92.more MPs pic.twitter.com/59DFyk51OU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 A stark reminder of the impact of first past the post Labour might have collapsed in Scotland but the gainers are…

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New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

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Seat-by-seat voting intention in my latest marginals poll: pic.twitter.com/Vyz4UtINvP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN Bury N Cannock C Chester Croydon C Erewash Keighley Northampton N Keighley Wirral W Worcester — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: CON would hold Blackpool N Kingswood Loughborough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals finds UKIP at 20% in key CON-LAB battles CON 33 LAB 36 LD 6 UKIP 20 GRN 4 This is CON-LAB swing of 4.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

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A future White House contender? NYT graphic of the US exit polls showing the demographic divide. http://t.co/U78l0QsoWF pic.twitter.com/tirP0tamjX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 The big UK political betting news will be the release by Lord Ashcroft later this morning of his latest round of single seat polling. He’s gone for seats with bigger majorities than his earlier polling as well as a look at Scotland. That’s due out at 11am and I will be covering on Twitter as well…

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If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

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Betfair exchange punters rate the the Republicans chances of winning Senate in today's midterms at 85% pic.twitter.com/H2Qk4snAPG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 The contests don’t appear to have grabbed public attention Gallup polling suggests there's much less interest in today's midterm elections than in previous years pic.twitter.com/wbF9W83jmB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 In the US its the midterms. This map shows when polls close across the country. pic.twitter.com/FJf4Pepg0M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014

Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

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With both LAB & CON continuing to be weak a majority seems remote On one level the rise of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens changes very little when trying to work out the coming election. The main fights are in LAB-CON battlegrounds where, conventionally, all that matters is the gap between the two main parties. You just leave aside others and focus on the blue and red shares. If CON has margin similar or larger than the…

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