With both LAB & CON continuing to be weak a majority seems remote
On one level the rise of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens changes very little when trying to work out the coming election. The main fights are in LAB-CON battlegrounds where, conventionally, all that matters is the gap between the two main parties. You just leave aside others and focus on the blue and red shares. If CON has margin similar or larger than the 7.3% of 2010 then it should gain seats.
But this election doesn’t feel right. All the main parties and all the leader’s have negative ratings. Cameron is top in this little triumvirate because his net negatives are lower.
I keep on asking myself whether we could see something totally different on May 8 next year. Could UKIP start picking up MPs in places that nobody had foreseen?
The recent Scottish polls suggest a revolution there.