Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

Survation poll for the Mirror showing LAB 4% ahead could take some of the pressure off Ed

UKIP now within just 3% of the Tories

Although Survation has become a major part of the UK polling scene since GE10 its standard Westminster voting surveys are only a small part of its output. Today, however, there’s a new poll for the Daily Mirror which could provide some relief for the Ed Miliband camp under siege after a day of leadership speculation.

The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly a month ago. The last Survation national poll in early October had LAB and CON level-pegging.

Survation has a reputation for producing the best shares for Farage’s party and is the only pollster that always includes it in its prompts.

    The poll is a good reminder that the party that’s most vulnerable to the UKIP surge is CON which has seen much more of its 2010 support seep away to it than either LAB or the LDs.

Meanwhile the most significant other leadership development is a report in the Times that the two front runners for next LAB leader, Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham, have agreed what’s described as a “non aggression” pact should Ed step down. This sounds like the sort of arrangement that leading Tories had in 2003 when IDS was ousted and Michael Howard became leader unopposed.

If this is indeed the case then my guess is that Burnham would make way for Cooper who didn’t stand in the 2010 contest when her husband, Ed Balls, was a contender. Burnham was one of the losers when Ed won.

Yesterday I got 100/1 on Yvette Cooper with Ladbrokes to be PM for the post general election Queen’s Speech. It seemed a good price.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

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