Could GE15 in England be like GE05 which the Tories won on votes but were 92 seats behind on seats
CON 35.7% England vote: 194 MPS
LAB 35.5% England vote: 286 MPs
GE2005 from Commons Research paper. LAB loses to CON on votes in England but comes out with 92.more MPs pic.twitter.com/59DFyk51OU
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014
A stark reminder of the impact of first past the post
Labour might have collapsed in Scotland but the gainers are not the Tories but the SNP – which means this development does not in any way help CON with their overall majority ambition.
The dramatic move to the SNP in Scotland suggests that LAB’s doing disproportionately better in England where the Tories were 11.4% ahead on votes last time and where LAB lost 83 seats.
Even if LAB loses support in England we could in the coming months we could get near a 2005 situation where LAB is behind votes but comes out with many more seats.
There’s no reason to think that the VOTES:SEATS ratio in England is going to be more equitable next May than it was ten years ago. In fact it could be worse for the Tories
The big unknown for next year is how a UKIP share in, say, the mid teens will impact on the overall outcome. It is hard to draw meaningful conclusions but we do know at the moment that the purples are picking up more blue voters than red ones.
As has been rehearsed so many times here the big drivers of the bias to LAB are smaller turnout levels in LAB heartlands thus depressing their overall GB share and tactical anti CON voting. In the past the latter has helped LAB and the LDs to win and retain seats against the Tories. The boundaries do have an impact but not as much as some believe.
Given that it is England where 532 of the 650 seats are including the vast bulk of the marginals it would be really good if we could see some England only polling.