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The House The US House of Representatives has 435 members. Each state is allocated 1 House member initially and then the remaining House members are allocated proportionally. The whole House is elected every 2 years. After every decennial census, the House undergoes a reapportionment process, where the allocation of seats for each state is adjusted in line with population changes. Each state (with more than one seat) then redraws the boundaries of its districts. This process is left up to…

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Part I – The Senate The US Senate is the upper house of the United States Congress. Unlike the House of Representatives which is proportional by population, the Senate elects a flat 2 Senators per state (e.g. the most populous state California has 52 House members and 2 Senators, while the least populous Wyoming has 1 House member and 2 Senators) Control of the Senate is also important for the Supreme Court as it gets to sign off on appointments…

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This has not been, for me, an enjoyable process: the polls and predictions have tilted more and more towards Trump with each week passing, and there is even more red on the charts this week. Apart from the Cook Political Report, who have not updated their Electoral College ratings for TWO MONTHS, everyone is predicting a Trump win, and the Senate leans very Republican too. It’s hard to see why. We’ve had numerous Trump events where he has looked –…

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While the polls are still 50-50, there are signs the betting markets are moving towards Trump.  I don’t have anything very useful to add to that, other than amazement that Harris is still in the game when consistently well over 60% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and under 30% think it’s on the right one.  This is quite the testimony to Trump’s negatives, and Harris’ basic likeability, whatever you think of her other qualities as…

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This is something that has been done many, many times before by lots of medical professionals, politicians, think tanks and other various people attached to the NHS in some way. We have had the insiders view, the outsiders view, the private healthcare view and on exceedingly rare occasions, patient views. How will this be any different? I guess it won’t, at least it won’t set out to be different for the sake of it. One of the first things I’d…

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The charts are getting redder. No one is giving the Electoral College to Harris now, the best forecasts are unclear results from Nate Silver and electoral-vote, with differing states tied in their models. And in the national polling, the movement is in Trump’s direction, even if Harris is leading slightly. The Senate picture is different (a little, not a lot) – after years of being told by pundits that split ticket voting was a thing of the past, it looks…

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This comparison will offend some of you, sorry. Also, if you are a supporter of either Trump or Hamas, maybe skip reading this. Most sensible people are both anti-Trump and anti-Hamas. But here’s the rub: I’d wager that many people who will put a cross next to Trump on November 5th are also anti-Trump, and many Palestinians that tolerate Hamas’ leadership are anti-Hamas. It’s just that, in both cases, the people in question cannot see a better option than to…

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I could almost have sympathy for Rachel Reeves. The much hyped October budget approaches and whatever she does she will have the sound of wailing and the gnashing of teeth. It has been her misfortune to hang her hat on the OBR and thereby leave a vacuum on what she will do. Politics like nature hates a vacuum and in the self imposed silence all manner of conjecture has been given ample room to feed rumours and speculate on Armageddon. …

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