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Catch-22 for the GOP?

Catch-22 for the GOP?

Might the GOP nominating McCain cause a win-win for the Democrats? This is not a year to be associated with the Republican National Congressional Committees. As well as failing to keep up with the fundraising on the Democratic side of the aisle, it seem that the GOP may suffer some significant losses in the November Congressional Elections as well. The 2006 Mid-Terms saw the Democrats win 233-202 in the US House of Representatives, making Nancy Pelosi (CA-08) the first female…

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PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club

PBC Barbeque at the National Liberal Club

Mike Smithson and Peter the Punter have asked me to draw your attention to an important date for your diaries – the fifth PoliticalBetting.com party! Taking the form of a barbeque, we will once again be meeting at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. All are invited to join us on Thursday 19th June 2008, from 6pm until whenever we are asked to leave. As always, it will be a pay-on-the-door event (the princely sum of £20…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

Is the Irish vote going down to the wire? With just four days until Ireland votes in the only referendum to be held on the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, recent polls give a contradictory picture. The TNS poll out a few days ago has been the only poll so far to show the No side in the lead, by 35-30, but with a massive 35% of respondents undecided. However, a Red C poll this weekend has shown the Yes camp back…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

How a Defeat Can Turn into a Rout One feature of the 2005 election was how well-distributed the Labour vote was, in terms of maximising the number of seats won by the Party. A 3% lead produced an overall majority of 66 (or 46, on the new boundaries). One feature of this was that around a quarter of Labour MPs had majorities in the 10-20% range, over the Conservatives, compared to fewer than a fifth who had majorities of less…

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Is this the template for the future?

Is this the template for the future?

Are short primary seasons a thing of the past? From the Iowa Caucuses on 3rd January to the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3rd, the five months of official campaigning in the Democratic primaries constituted the final act of choosing a nominee for President of the United States. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had announced their candidacies a year or so before Iowa, and their exploratory committees had been laying the groundwork as far back as Autumn…

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The chances of a replacement for Gordon

The chances of a replacement for Gordon

A guest article from Tim Dodds There’s much talk about Labour dumping Gordon Brown before the next general election. Here are some considerations, from my perspective, that may count in Labour’s deliberations: One thing is certain; the game is on for a new leader. The final plays in the game may not be this year, next year, or even before the next general election. But make no mistake Gordon Brown is in an unrecoverable position. The horizon ahead of him…

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The starting gun for Henley is fired

The starting gun for Henley is fired

Wikimedia Commons Are the Conservatives value at almost any price? Following the historic result in Crewe & Nantwich, the next UK betting event for political punters is now underway, with the official announcement that Boris Johnson has been appointed to the Manor of Northstead, the new London Mayor making his final appearance in the Commons today. At the time of writing, the date has not been confirmed but is widely expected to be 26th June. So, what will the opening…

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Conservatives on 14 point lead with Com Res

Conservatives on 14 point lead with Com Res

Con 44 (+1), Lab 30 (+4), Lib Dem 16 (-3) Andrew Grice has announced that ComRes have a poll in tomorrow’s Independent newspaper, giving the Conservatives 44% and Labour 30%. The Lib Dems have fallen three points back down to 16%. Whilst Labour are up 4% from the last ComRes poll, the Conservatives have also gained, giving them their best score with ComRes since David Cameron became leader. According to UK Polling Report, this is the first time that David…

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