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Research by Dr Scott Davidson, De Montfort University Although the ageing of the UK population is well documented, less well understood are the implications for a first past the post electoral system such as ours, with the importance of marginal seats in campaigning. My research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are defending 57 “grey marginals” against the apparent rise in vote share for the Conservatives since 2005. A note on methods (more details in the full report). I…

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A guest slot by Matthew Lebo, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stony Brook University Academics make electoral forecasts that differ from those of poll-watchers. First, we use historic data and statistical methods to make our predictions, not simply the latest polls. Second, in addition to accuracy, we also want to learn something about the fundamentals that move voters and decide elections. Third, we want to know more than how people would vote if an election were held today – we…

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Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. The current decline against Labour is precipitous. Green and Jennings argue that it is important to study the public mood across a…

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