ICM Guardian May 24 May 13 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 21%  Lib Dems lose a little but Coalition steady at 60% In the first major post-GE poll with voting intention carried out by ICM for The Guardian, there are small increases in the Conservative and Labour shares, while the Lib Dems and Others are down – though all movements are within marginal of error (if towards the outer edges of it). The figures are also…
BBC results 2010 election What future for blues north of the border? In 2005, across the United Kingdom, the Conservatives won less than 200 seats; in 2010, they won more than 300. That increase of more than a hundred came entirely in England and Wales; the Scottish Conservatives returned just the one constituency, the same as in 2005. This poses David Cameron and his party several problems. The one of mandate is relatively easily answered, although none of the answers…
Will she really allow an all-male shortlist? The Labour leadership contest is being dominated in the early stages by David Miliband, who is heavily odds-on with all outlets. While the usual rule for Labour Leadership elections is that the favourite wins, there just look to be too many variables at the moment to justify such short odds on the former Foreign Secretary. Perhaps the biggest variable is what the field will be. Other than the Milibands, there are no other…
Expectations of a Leadership Bid launch next week   A further development in the Labour leadership campaign this evening to add to David Miliband’s earlier announcement is that Jon Cruddas seems very likely to stand, having apparently told the Compass Group that the party needs a new direction. Paul Waugh has tweeted to expect an announcement of a leadership bid next week. Cruddas stood for the Deputy Leadership 3 years ago as a voice from outside the elite and of…
Can Cameron and Clegg conclude coalition concords? More than a day after the polls closed and still we’re barely any nearer knowing who will form the government as a result of yesterday’s election. The negotiations between the parties aren’t just a numbers game – complex enough though that is – they’re also a battle for legitimacy in the public mind. A Populus poll for The Times sheds a little light on that, with the three options put (Tory minority government,…
What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…
Would this be the key question as to What Happens Next? Let’s suppose that the General Election produces the hung parliament the polls and betting markets are currently indicating is the likeliest outcome. What happens next is partly the consequence of the numbers game – how many MP’s and votes each party won – but also how the various players react to events and to each other. In politics, as allegedly elsewhere, possession is nine-tenths of the law and Gordon…
Why’s Labour not using such a traditionally effective medium? All elections are different in some way from what’s gone before as new campaigning techniques and opportunities come in, as new issues and concerns arise and as new candidates find alternative ways of interacting with the electorate. This one’s no exception. While much has rightly been made of the TV debates – by far the biggest innovation of the 2010 election – one major component of recent elections seems curiously absent this…