NIC Reeves & The Blunder Stuff

29/11/2025 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Rachel Reeves said repeatedly during the run-up to the Budget that she would have to raise taxes because of a productivity downgrade by the OBR

The Office for Budget Responsibility has today suggested that was not the case

Here is what Reeves said publicly – and what the OBR…
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 28, 2025

BREAKING

The OBR says it informed Rachel Reeves as far back as ***September 17*** that the downgrade in productivity forecasts was offset by 'increases in real wages and inflation'. The deficit was in fact just £2.5billion

By October 31 that deficit had turned into net positive… pic.twitter.com/LmTvwVXISI
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 28, 2025

If the government dropped income tax rate rises for political reasons, that’s one thing, but why then suggest it was because of a £20bn black hole which *the OBR had told them didn’t exist*?

Remember what else was happening that week? https://t.co/W1JcMjDGr0 https://t.co/C79M0DkNZo
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) November 28, 2025

People do not like being lied to and being manipulated, the financial markets particularly so, the stories that have broken about Rachel Reeves have the potential to be destabilising. When you’re borrowing over £100 billion a year you cannot annoy the markets like this.

Labour will have three more budgets to deliver before the next election, I expect the run up to the next one in particular will be particularly rough after these events.

I think Rachel Reeves survives this but if there’s evidence that Pippa Crerar of The Guardian alludes to and some of this was to stop a leadership challenge against Starmer then the First and Second Lords of the Treasury are in a lot of trouble.

TSE

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NIC Reeves & The Blunder Stuff

29/11/2025 TSE Comments 0 Comment