Farage (narrowly) takes lead over Starmer on our preferred PM question too for first time. Though none of the above beats them both and Badenoch. Starmer is still the preferred choice (of them + none) by 55% of Labour 2024 voters however.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-01-29T08:12:52.746Z

In today's @thetimes.com Daniel Finkelstein cites our latest approval tracker which finds Keir Starmer hit a personal low of -42 net approval, now lower than the low we recorded for Rishi Sunak of -41.

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-01-29T08:12:52.743Z

Margin of error changes in latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll mean again it's a virtual 3-way tie between Labour, Reform & Conservatives?LAB 25% (+1)?? REF UK 25% (nc)?CON 24% (-1)? LIB DEM 13% ( +1)? GREEN 7% (nc)? SNP 2% (-1)N = 2,009 Dates: 24 – 27 Jan, Change w 20 Jan

— Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2025-01-29T07:48:45.787Z

Today’s More in Common fits in with the YouGov poll, really bad ratings for Starmer/Labour but Labour ahead of Reform and the Tories in a close and messy three way but for me the intriguing finding from this polling is how 2024 Tories and splitting on who would make the best PM.

My immediate thought went back to the 2015 general election polling where plenty of people said they were voting Labour but preferred David Cameron as PM which fitted in with leader relating polling. By contrast Starmer is getting well over half of his 2024 voters, which normally is pretty bad but compared to Badenoch it is very impressive.

Unless Kemi Badenoch can turn this around then the Conservatives are going to get shellacked at the next election if she makes it that far. She does have time given we are potentially four and a half years away from the next election.

If these figures do not improve then I think we will see a very low turnout general election and Reform receiving more votes than the Tories.

TSE