As leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon won eight elections in a row. But her failure to find a path to Scottish independence looms over her. Over Lunch with the FT she talks scandals, falling out with Alex Salmond — and why referendum pressure will return https://t.co/v6kJdzANPD pic.twitter.com/4uGKpju1yL

— FT Weekend (@ftweekend) January 12, 2025

In her weekend interview with the FT Nicola Sturgeon covered a wide range of topics but from a betting perspective this is the key quote.

The day after the UK’s 2016 Brexit vote, [Sturgeon] said a second independence referendum was “highly likely”. Now it’s “off the radar . . . But in younger age groups, support for independence is 60, 65, 70 per cent. They’re not changing their minds as they get older. The demographics are very firmly in one direction. I do think Scotland will be independent within our lifetimes, absolutely.” 

I suspect we won’t get an another independence referendum until the SNP can influence who the government at Westminster is, they cannot do that with their current 9 MPs so I cannot see a second referendum until the early to mid 2030s. As for the democratic inevitability of the youth, I’ve heard the same story about other parties and plebiscites that it really isn’t worth thinking it is inevitable.

In the early 2000s articles and books were published about the death of Tory England and then the Tories went to win on four consecutive general elections and were in power for fourteen years. Ditto the young voters who voted remain in 1975 then voted leave in 2016.

If you are thinking of backing a referendum before 2030 then you’re wasting your money and the time value of money makes betting anything after 2030 not worth it.

TSE