NEW from @IpsosUK: How likely are Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch to lead their parties into the next election?

Starmer
Likely 52%
Unlikely 29%

Badenoch
Likely 36%
Unlikely 38%https://t.co/EKi7YYc6fD pic.twitter.com/xitAdDNoNC

— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) November 20, 2024

I don’t think this polling says anything personally about Starmer and Badenoch but more about their parties.

As we saw with Jeremy Corbyn it is very hard for Labour to replace their leader if they aren’t willing to go. For the Tories the reason more people think Badenoch won’t make it to the election is that since 2001 only one Tory leader has lasted more then thirty-eight months in the job and that was the exceptional David Cameron.

Ladbrokes has some markets on whether Starmer and/or Badenoch will lead their parties at the next election and I cannot spot any value here, especially. when you consider you are potentially tying up your money for over four and a half years.

TSE

Edit – There are other Ladbrokes markets which allows you both sides of the bet, the 4/6 on Starmer looks good but there are other non political bets which would pay out much quicker.