Could this explain the Betfair market?

31/10/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Scoop: Blockchain researchers have found evidence of rampant wash trading on the leading electoral betting site Polymarket, with Chaos Labs concluding that one-third of volume on its presidential market is likely artificial pic.twitter.com/UyuylpUL6g
— Leo Schwartz (@leomschwartz) October 30, 2024

Some important notes here:

– Wash trading is common on crypto platforms, especially when there is potential for future token launches, as seems to be the case here

– Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has said that users' ability to audit the blockchain-based platform is a "feature,…
— Leo Schwartz (@leomschwartz) October 30, 2024

A wallet moved $3,000,000 to Polymarket today and put it all immediately on "YES" for Trump.

His only issue: he cleared the whole order book and bought $274,300 worth of shares at 99.7%. pic.twitter.com/GA2hlbKgqq
— Stats (@punk9059) October 25, 2024

With the White House race essentially being a coin toss the Betfair market appears to disagree but given the the news coming out regarding Polymarket raises eyebrows.

I suspect there are sufficient safeguards in place to stop market manipulation on Betfair and with over £116 million matched on this Betfair market it seems a poor use of resources to waste money on the betting markets rather than spend the money in key battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Perhaps one day we will find out why some people are trying to manipulate the betting markets like this.

I still think the value lies with Harris.

TSE

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Could this explain the Betfair market?

31/10/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment