You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, what movement has there been?

In national polling, Harris has a slight edge, but there’s been a small shift towards Trump. Harris is clearly favourite to win the popular vote, but that of course isn’t what counts.
In the Electoral College, 538 has moved North Carolina from Trump to Harris, bringing it into line with the others, so the general view is that Harris has a slight edge in the Electoral College too – but all of these ‘wins’, for both sides, are by small margins, so there’s plenty of time for a big change to happen.
RCP meanwhile has moved Pennsylvania from Trump to a tie, so they now have an unclear EC result. They are alone in this for PA, however.
The Cook Political Report do have a reputation for being cautious, and their unclear verdict has remained the same. They haven’t changed this since August 27th! They have moved some house races towards the Dems, though, in key states, so surely some adjustment should be coming shortly.

On the Senate, everyone i pretty agreed that the Republicans are favourites, and are predicted to win 51-49. electoral-vote are the odd ones out here, and their 50-50 prediction is based on… Nebraska.

Let’s talk about Nebraska. Normally solid for the Republicans, there are two elections this year, and the incumbent Senator defending her seat, Deb Fischer is a) not popular, and b) facing an Independent who has a really good profile. Dan Osborn has avoided saying if he would caucus with one side or the other if he won, but the Dems have cleared the way for him, and as he built his reputation as a union organiser who ran successful strikes, it’s hard to see him as other than Dem-leaning. E-V.com have him with a slight – very slight – edge on the latest polls, and when you dig into their figures, 538 do too. RCP aren’t apparently collating any polling for this election and have it as Likely R. I might have to add it in to the list of states to watch if Osborn continues to poll well.

James Doyle