And He said to them, “Go into all the world and preach the gospel to every creature. Whoever believes and is baptized will be saved, but whoever does not believe will be condemned. And these signs will accompany those who believe: In My name they will drive out demons; they will speak in new tongues; they will pick up snakes with their hands, and if they drink any deadly poison, it will not harm them; they will lay their hands on the sick, and they will be made well.”

Mark 15-18 (The Great Commission)

Each country’s politics has a few wrinkles of its own that outsiders find obscure. America’s twist in the developed Anglosphere is how key religious belief is to its political life.

In the 2020 election 59% of voters who frequently attend religious services voted Trump, while 40% chose Biden. Amongst those who attend services a few times a year or never it was almost exactly the reverse: 58% picked Biden, while 40% went for Trump. The divide was even more stark when broken down by denomination and race.

Chart from Pew Research

In the region of 25% of Americans Identify religiously as white Evangelicals, with a similar percentage religiously unaffiliated. Evangelicals are more likely to attend regularly than other denominations but even rare attenders seem to be as politically Republican. The unaffiliated group leans heavily Democrat and has grown in recent years, particularly amongst the young. The squeeze has been on the mainstream Protestant denominations and Catholics.

Black Evangelicals are strongly Democrat as a legacy of the Civil Rights movement, and there are a few other quirks such as Mormons being strongly Republican. Other denominations are more split, so potentially of interest to those seeking swing voters. Evangelicals and fellow travellers in mainstream denominations are the rock-solid core of Republican support, and of MAGA Republicans in particular, with Trump the colossus in charge.

Evangelicalism still geographically dominates much of the USA particularly in the “Flyover States” of the American interior, see here.

Why then are so many Evangelicals so fanatically supportive of Donald Trump? He is after all nominally a Presbyterian but a rare church attender, and a New York Yankee city socialite, and one with a dubious trail of affairs and personal scandals.

In part the explanation is socio-economic as the counties of America where Evangelism predominates are those that have suffered with  economic decline. Agriculture, mining and manufacturing jobs are no longer well paid or numerous, and recent years have been hard too on the small mom and pop businesses that are the core of the self-employed middle class.

These are the left behind towns of America blighted by opiates and social breakdown. There is a social class element too, with Evangelicals generally less well educated and of more modest incomes, the sorts of people that JD Vance describes in his fascinating but flawed autobiography “Hillbilly Elegy”. People dissatisfied often want change and are nostalgic for older times.

This doesn’t explain the Evangelical MAGA devotion entirely, as other denominations have also felt cut adrift, such as the Lutherans of the Great Plains and Catholics of the Rust Belt, yet these are more evenly divided politically. We need to look at the distinctive Evangelical history, Theology, Liturgy and Cultural heritage for an explanation.

The history of Evangelicalism in the USA starts largely in the Second Great Awakening of the early 19^th Century, a reaction to the anodyne and hierarchical mainstream denominations amongst the settlers spreading West from the Atlantic coast, initially into Appalachia, then the Midwest and Great Plains.

In the 1960’s Tele-Evangelists like Billy Graham and rise of Christian Broadcasting added a fresh impetus that embraced the consumerist lifestyle of the American boom. This was marketed to baby-boomers turned off by the stuffy mainstream denominations, and functioned as a business rather than a traditional church. Popular music, informal dress and a move away from traditional church architecture and liturgy, with short punchy sermons and plenty of show business are the characteristics now.

These Churches moved to arena or stadium like buildings with ample parking as accessible as a shopping mall, and often with as many facilities for eating, youth and child pastors and multiple services to suit different tastes. Rather than asking for the congregation to change their lifestyle these Churches accommodated it.

Evangelical Protestantism is an exuberant form of religious experience characterised by strict adherence to Biblical authority, centred on being spiritually cleansed by the Crucifixion of Jesus as an Atonement for Original Sin. To an extent this is a shared belief with other forms of Christianity, but the emphasis in Evangelical sects is on the inward mystical experience of Jesus as Saviour. This means a focus on the death of Jesus in fulfilment of Old Testament prophecy rather than the life and teachings of Jesus.

The Old Testament, such as the Ten Commandments, and the exodus then conquest of a promised land appeals greatly to the pioneering spirit, with “an eye for an eye” punitive justice, and little regard to non-believers. Evangelicals see themselves as the remnant of Christianity that has to resist the threat of cultural dilution and secular science. 

While Evangelicals fiercely guard their right to religious autonomy they paradoxically have little compunction in enforcing their religion on others, particularly on issues of personal sexual behaviour and the raising of children. Hence the importance of heterosexual marriage, abortion bans and school curriculum to these voters. There is little or no interest in areas of morality more remote to the individual, such as racial or economic injustice or foreign affairs.

Features of Evangelism all match with Trump’s preferred campaigning style; of mass rallies with politics as an Evangelical Revival Meeting gathering the faithful. Mega-churches are very much MAGA churches. Trump is not asking these people to change their lives to meet the modern world, but rather he validates their consumerism, distrust of scientific rationalism, antipathy to alternative lifestyles and foreigners. Mangled words are familiar to those who speak in tongues, and a further sign of the faithful is stigmata.

Trump’s doom-laden speeches are sermons for a modern age, forecasts of an apocalyptic reckoning between the forces of good and evil. Evangelicals are not afraid of this apocalypse, indeed often seek out signs of its imminent arrival, such as the return of Jews to the holy land.

The Evangelical doctrine of salvation by Grace rather than by deeds makes excuses for a lot of Trump’s personal peccadillos, as all sins can be forgiven, and after all these are trivial in comparison with the forthcoming epic battle between the forces of good and evil. Stocking up with arms in anticipation of this is not only permitted, but to be encouraged in order to restore the faithful to the Eden of Making America Great Again.

Trump excels as a charismatic preacher. He too offers showmanship, spectacle, and mass adulation.  His manifest untruths and denial of rationality are tests of faith that must be passed, indeed similar to the narcissistic capricious vengeful God of the Old Testament. A core test of faith is to trust the sermon over the evidence of your own eyes. Take up Serpents as they will not bite the faithful.

Punters looking at betting on state markets may be interested in the demography of US religious denominations. North Carolina and Georgia look too Evangelical to me, though these are a lot of Black Evangelicals too. Pennsylvania has fewer, but can Harris turn out the White Catholics for the Democrats as well as Catholic Scranton born Biden did? This link has a useful interactive map:

Foxy

Foxy enjoys a bit of Pentacostalist worship himself, indeed it was at such a Service that I had my own epiphany, though have since moved on to a more universalist Christianity. I appreciate the ecstatic intoxication of such worship, its embracement of irrationality and the dangerous devotion to narcissistic demagogues.