‘Obsession’ with Reform UK could leave Tories out of power for 20 years, warns Andy Street https://t.co/tPehjlDm0O

— The Guardian (@guardian) August 31, 2024

As a lifelong Tory I get the feeling some of my fellow Tories are deluding themselves about the scale of the defeat. Yes Starmer polled a mere 33.7% at the election (but ignoring the Tories polled even lower), the result wasn’t as bad as the MRPs suggested, and well most Reform voters are really Tory voters in name, whilst ignoring the elephant in the room, the Lib Dems.

As we can see from the below chart the gap between the Tories and the Lib Dems in terms of parliamentary seats is much closer than it has ever been since the Lib Dems came into existence.

I cannot recall any of the leadership contenders focussing on the Lib Dem issue but can recall plenty about chasing the Reform vote, hopefully Andy Street’s intervention will change that. At the next election that 49 seat gap could be eradicated as the Tories shed those marginal seats to other parties such as the SNP and Reform.

From bitter experience I know once the Lib Dems win a seat they are harder to shift that antibiotic resistant STD. Only when a truly great politician like David Cameron comes along that the Lib Dems are defeated.

There’s no automaticity that any unpopularity the Labour party may experience will go to the Tories so it is entirely possible the Lib Dems eclipse the Tories thanks to Labour unpopularity. My view is that the Lib Dems eclipsing the Tories at the next election is more likely than the Tories forming the government after the next election.

TSE