As I predicted earlier on this week Robert Jenrick has overtaken Kemi Badenoch as the favourite in the next Tory market.

I expect the final two to be Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. I’ve said (and bet accordingly) that Badenoch is overrated & far too belligerent and is so far proving it. I don’t think the Guardian stories have damaged her that much but it hasn’t helped.

I now think this election is the Cambridge educated lawyer’s election to lose.

TSE