And on the flip side, Biden was pretty strong with older white voters in the North East – are Maine and New Hampshire more competitive in Trump v Harris?

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 25, 2024

Two new polls (Harris+6 and Harris+7) answer the New Hampshire question. Biden was +7 in 2020, so these polls are actually better than a uniform swing from national polls would imply

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 25, 2024

Yep, and his polling there has been (slightly) stronger than you'd expect from a uniform swing

— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) July 25, 2024

I have thought the path to victory for Kamala Harris would be difficult and I think Donald Trump is still the favourite. The analysis in Harry Enten’s original Tweet implies the Biden 2020/24 coalition might not transfer 100% to Harris but also gives her scope to win votes and states that were seemingly out of reach for the Dems, even Texas might be in play, Biden had one path to victory, Harris may have more.

Once we start seeing more liquidity in the state betting markets then perhaps they could be value there, hopefully Sporting Index will soon introduce markets on the electoral votes each candidate will win. If Harris is leading in the polls in early September then I may revise my view on the election outcome.

TSE