Surveys are an imperfect measure of turnout as people overestimate likelihood and we may still be more likely to interview the politically engaged

But looking at the % telling us they are 10/10 certain to vote is a useful relative measure to gauge enthusiasm between elections ?

— Cameron Garrett (@CameronGarrett_) July 2, 2024

This decline in relative enthusiasm is also seen when we ask people how important the result is to them personally. Currently 79% say it is important which is:

?Down from ~85% in 2015/17/19
? Similar to 2010/05
?Higher than 2001 – when turnout reached post-war low (59%) pic.twitter.com/JvTpZuf2WI

— Cameron Garrett (@CameronGarrett_) July 2, 2024

This is also reflected in our work with the Electoral Commission which shows registration among young people has been declining ? pic.twitter.com/lsWpcPahgI

— Cameron Garrett (@CameronGarrett_) July 2, 2024

What does this mean for Thursday? ????

Indicators and conditions point towards turnout being down from recent elections – it’s v unlikely to be near the 71% in the 1997… but how low will it go?

Explore @IpsosUK trends here: https://t.co/0xYtKbOHTV pic.twitter.com/w603rsVENm

— Cameron Garrett (@CameronGarrett_) July 2, 2024