Is France about to surrender to the far right?

30/6/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment

??Political earthquake in France. Le Pen’s hard-right party and allies have won a massive lead in first-round parliamentary voting. Early results from @IpsosFrance give the RN 34%. This means it could, possibly, win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly on July 7th 1/ pic.twitter.com/9GRpD8f6G7
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) June 30, 2024

The vote was crushing and painful for Macron’s centrists, who scored 20.3% according to @IpsosFrance. The centre has not held against the hard-right and hard-left. France is heading for a period of deep uncertainty and political instability 3/
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) June 30, 2024

I think for Ipsos to suggest the National Front + allies are only an error margin off a majority is undoubtedly seismic. Polls were suggesting fewer seats than that.

But assumptions about how first round votes will split in the second would be risky.
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) June 30, 2024

I note in 2022 and 17 when it was the Left/NUPES Vs the National Front the FN won them more than NUPES did. Those pro-Macron centrist voters went somewhere ?
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) June 30, 2024

I’ve not focussed or bet on the French election due the UK general election and US Presidential election because I cannot handle three massive elections at the same time.

The result in France has major ramifications for the UK, the Bank of England has warned that Le Pen’s plans will lead to a Liz Truss style economic disaster that would impact the UK economy which would be sub-optimal for Sir Keir Starmer.

I suspect if the Le Pen’s party wins then rejoining the EU will plummet in the UK.

TSE

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Is France about to surrender to the far right?

30/6/2024 TSE Comments 0 Comment