Welcome to the world of volatility
Think of Scotland, and places like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk or East Renfrewshire which have swung massively from LD to SNP then SNP to Con all in the space of a few years or East Renfrewshire which has got Lab to SNP then SNP to Con then back to SNP. The Red Wall is likely to see the swings of 2019 reversed on a grand scale.
With an uncertain world things can become worse if the appeasers/Russian shills sell out Ukraine I can guarantee Putin’s territorial ambitions will not end with Ukraine and/or say China decides to invade Taiwan.
So one assumption that I feel certain that has the potential to be proven wrong is that if Starmer wins a 1997 sized majority or larger then don’t assume the 2028/29 is in the bag for Labour.
That doesn’t mean the Tories will benefit, there’s a gap on Labour’s left that the Greens could occupy, whilst the Lib Dems could occupy the ground occupied by One Nation Tories if the Tory party decides that the likes of Priti Patel or Suella Braverman should replace Sunak and that bringing Nigel Farage into the Tory party is the way to salvation.
TSE