Seat projections from the new MRP poll for @Telegraph

Labour 516
Tories 53
Lib Dems 50
SNP 8
Plaid 4
Reform 0

This suggests the Lib Dems are in touching distance of becoming the official opposition.

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) June 19, 2024

What are the major shifts in this version of the model?
?? More of the marginal seats in Scotland are projected to break for Labour from the SNP.
??The Liberal Democrats are making bigger gains from the Tories in Oxfordshire, Somerset & Surrey in particular

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) June 19, 2024

Implied vote share from our latest MRP

Labour: 39%
Conservative: 22%
Reform UK: 15%
Lib Dem: 12%
Green: 7%
SNP: 3%
Plaid Cymru: 1%
Other: 2%https://t.co/IcCwaclKHz

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 19, 2024

Each of the pollsters have different fieldworks and methodologies which explains the variations (and don’t dismiss a poll because the fieldwork is older, I mean do you want it quick or do you want it good?)

This makes betting on politics so much fun, get it right on the spreads and you’re quids in and get it wrong and you’re going to the poorhouse.

The Tories are getting walloped but even the best MRP has them losing worse than 1997 which really must be sobering for them. I am not sure the internet will be able to cope if Sunak loses his seat.

I would reiterate the point from the morning thread

Of course you’re all sensible people and wouldn’t put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can’t take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all.

TSE