Scotland is ready for change – 87% agree Britain needs a fresh team of leaders, 70% agree Scotland needs a fresh team.

— Rachel Ormston (@rachelormston) April 5, 2024

But the public is still divided on whether Labour is ready to form the next government, especially at Holyrood – 45% agree Labour is ready to form the next UKG, 34% that they're ready to form the next SG.

— Rachel Ormston (@rachelormston) April 5, 2024

And in case you miss it, we also asked what people think the balance between tax and spend should be – people in Scotland are more likely to say that the UKG should increases spending on services even if it means higher taxes than to support tax cuts if it means less on services.

— Rachel Ormston (@rachelormston) April 5, 2024

I’ve have previously noted that two of out of the three MRP polls this year shows the SNP winning a majority of Scottish Westminster seats at the next general election which seems hard to reconcile with Labour winning 400 plus seats this polling does give some potential explanations.

A net negative 53% says the Tory government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected in Scotland a net negative 14% say the Scottish government doesn’t deserve to be re-elected, so there’s less intensity on removing the Scottish government from power which saves the SNP from getting a kicking in the Westminster election as this is de facto mid term election for the Scottish government.

Secondly there’s less expectation for Labour to fix things in Scotland so changing governments might not have impact. What should concern the SNP is that 70% of Scots say Scotland needs fresh leaders which doesn’t bode well for them I fear.

Smarkets have a market up on the SNP vote share at the next election but I cannot see any value here perhaps others can.

TSE