New: latest polling shows Labour could barely increase its share of the vote compared to Corbyn 2017 – but win a huge majority.

The party's vote is getting more "efficient", losing voters in inner cities and gaining in suburbs and towns.

??@Smyth_Chris https://t.co/eOOjrYfE9s

— Joey D'Urso (@josephmdurso) April 6, 2024

Here's the results in terms of seats though. A massacre, enough to flip a big Tory majority into a huge Labour one. pic.twitter.com/gjYsDjJQ19

— Joey D'Urso (@josephmdurso) April 6, 2024

This is why Labour have often been lukewarm on electoral reform. Though it may have helped them i the short term at various points, in the long term, it can supercharge majorities… pic.twitter.com/t3WsHzLZhh

— Joey D'Urso (@josephmdurso) April 6, 2024

The Times have done a bit of a deep dive into the latest YouGov MRP and it is clear Labour’s vote is becoming more efficient, as The Times notes

The MRP model poll finds that Labour’s vote is down on 2019 in more than 50 constituencies, predominantly urban seats where progressive supporters have been disillusioned by Starmer’s move to the centre and his stance over the conflict in Gaza. However, this does not prevent Labour from retaining all these seats, many of which were won by large majorities under Corbyn.

Overall, Labour’s vote share is up by only three percentage points in seats it already holds, compared with more than eight points in seats held by the Conservatives, suggesting Labour is becoming more “efficient” by winning voters in the right places in a first-past-the-post system. In seats held by the SNP, Labour’s vote share is up 15 points, putting it on course to become Scotland’s largest party again.

The size of Labour’s predicted majority is aided by a collapse in Conservative support as Reform UK eats into its vote share. The Tories are down 26 points in seats they are defending against Labour.

“While this is partly because Labour are doing better in Con-Lab seats, the other key reason is the impact of Reform,” Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said. This is in part because Reform, when it was known as the Brexit Party, did not stand in Tory-held seats in 2019, but this time it plans to fight everywhere.

So on the betting front this implies Labour may do better than UNS suggests so it might be wiser to bet Labour on winning more seats/Tories losing more seats than UNS suggests. This the latest from Betfair on the number of seat losses the Tories will experience at the election.

One thing that would worry me if I were a Labour strategist, the Tories are shedding 26.2% of their vote in the seats where the Tories are first and Labour are second but Labour are only picking up fewer than a third of the those Tory switchers.

TSE