Two groups of Con 2019 voters who put chance of voting Con now < 5/10, in E Thanet & Portsmouth N (Penny Mordaunt’s seat)

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 22, 2024

These focus groups has come up with a fantastic analogy.

For some of these former Conservatives, the paradoxical appeal of a change of government was stability: “If the Tories did get back in they’d go for a new leader and then it will be catastrophe all over again. So as much as I’m not really a Labour supporter, I feel a change of government would stabilise things;”

“It feels like we’ve got alcoholic parents. Everything’s crazy and then the next morning it’s suddenly sorry and let’s go and feed the ducks. It’s not secure enough. You can’t help but love your alcoholic parents but you might want to go and live with your auntie for a bit.”

TSE