At the last election turnout was 67.3% and I might expect turnout to be higher at this election as voters mobilise to get the Tories out but I suspect turnout will be lower due to voting ID requirements change. After last year’s locals, Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted those changes were a gerrymander aka voter suppression.

Rees-Mogg admitted “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting on voter ID for elections….We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they, by and large, voted Conservative, so we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well.”

Additionally if the polls on election day have Labour with a similar lead to today’s polls then some voters may also decide not to turn up and vote as the result is a foregone conclusion, plus a campaign featuring Sunak and Starmer isn’t likely to inspire voters to go out and vote.

You can find the Betfair market on turnout here.

TSE