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Month: January 2019

Desperate times. A new way out of the Brexit impasse

Desperate times. A new way out of the Brexit impasse

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8/ So the Government can't pass its deal The Government can't negotiate a new deal There is no Parliamentary support for No Deal The Opposition can't force an election The Tories can't call a Leadership challenge Immovable object meets brick fucking wall pic.twitter.com/qL16HuqMDO — James Graham (@mrJamesGraham) January 16, 2019 The train is hurtling down the track and the cliff edge of 11pm on 29 March 2019 approaches. The overwhelming majority of the House of Commons is unwilling to countenance…

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A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday

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Why I’m betting on Farage to become an MP in 2019 I suspect whatever the outcome on Brexit Nigel Farage will be screaming betrayal as it will not be the precise type of Brexit he wants. I expect that screaming will be heard on Jupiter if Article 50 is extended or revoked. If Parliament does what pre referendum Farage suggested in the event of 52%/48% result in 2016 and hold another referendum then Farage might be very cross. So how…

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Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB

Now we’ve got some non-YouGov polls showing CON leads the position looks a tad less good for LAB

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Including the three new polls published tonight all the voting intention surveys so far in 2019 from Wikipedia pic.twitter.com/lzC2jqualW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2019 With three new voting intention polls out in the past couple of hours this has been the biggest evening for Westminster surveys June 7th 2017 – the day before the last general election. One of the positive things for LAB until this evening is that no other pollster than YouGov had shown a CON…

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A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

A Customs Union deal needs to be on the table if No Deal is to be avoided

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The only way to get Brexit Deal votes is to go softer It’s lonely at the top. It’s probably lonelier if you cut yourself off and isolate yourself from your colleagues, even if they are after their own interests and your own job. This last week has proven just how politically lonely Theresa May is, yet still she carries on. There’s something admirable in that and perhaps it’s no small part of the explanation for the rise in rise in…

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Trump is clearing the road to his own impeachment

Trump is clearing the road to his own impeachment

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‘La Famiglia’by Marf His shutdown has backfired and he’s vulnerable For all the attention on Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump’s campaign and associated activities, the thing that will ultimately do for Trump – or save him – is politics. The latest reports, that Trump directed his lawyer to lie to Congress, are certainly not good news for the embattled president but nor are they catastrophic. For one thing, as he is fond of noting, Michael Cohen is not necessarily a…

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Some comfort for TMay from YouGov – 56% of those polled have felt sympathy for her

Some comfort for TMay from YouGov – 56% of those polled have felt sympathy for her

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Sympathy for Theresa May has risen over the past few months, but only slightly. 56% of Brits now say they have felt sympathy for her at some point (up 7% from September), but 37% say they never have https://t.co/DOSE0MCAhV pic.twitter.com/AA2wdR8uD6 — YouGov (@YouGov) January 18, 2019 It’s not going to make getting Brexit through any easier Even amongst LAB voters there’s a relatively high percentage holding this view – 43% against 52% who haven’t. There’s quite a gender divide with…

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More Democrats put their hats into the ring in the fight for the nomination to take on Trump

More Democrats put their hats into the ring in the fight for the nomination to take on Trump

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While all in the UK have been focused on Brexit and it’s aftermath things are starting to hot up in the race to be elected president of the United States in November 2020. This will be the 5th White House campaign that will be covered by Politicalbetting since the site’s foundation in 2004. These are massive betting events and throughout the next 22 months there’ll be a wide range of markets to bet on. There’s a lot of early activity…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are the Tories really ahead in the polls?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Deal or no deal. Plus are the Tories really ahead in the polls?

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On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss the fallout from a hectic week in Westminster. They ask whether a General Election, 2nd referendum or ‘no deal Brexit’ have become more or less likely and explain why politicians claiming that the Tories are ahead in the polls are not telling the full story. Listen to this week’s episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet