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Month: January 2019

As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings drop to post GE2017 low

As the Tory Brexit crisis continues Corbyn’s “Best PM” ratings drop to post GE2017 low

Chart @Statto And Cable puts the pressure on Corbyn over 2nd referendum https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1085897750384906242 By 76% to 15% current LAB supporters tell YouGov that in hindsight the referendum vote to leave the EU was wrong.https://t.co/rGi3BWzYWo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2019 A fast moving day following the Tory victory in last night’s Commons confidence vote has seen the focus on Mr, Corbyn who has refused to meet the PM. In another move the LD leader, Vince Cable, has told Corbyn…

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If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the day

If there’s a second referendum then LEAVE’s “Tell them Again” message would likely win the day

With increasing regularity at the moment the national Westminster polls are asking how respondents would vote if there was a new referendum on Brexit. In the main the responses a fairly similar with those wanting to stay in the EU having a lead between 7 and 10%. I am not convinced there has been that much switching. Being a Leaver or remainer is almost akin to supporting City or United in Manchester. You are one side or the other but…

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Now what?

Now what?

There are no good options from now on, no cost-free ones, anyway. There never were. If this point had been made 2½ years ago – and indeed at any point thereafter – we might not be where we are now.  So now what? Well, for those who want a No Deal Brexit doing nothing is the best option.  Just wait.  Tick. Tock. …… Until 11 pm on Friday 29th March 2019. Exciting, isn’t it? Like  small children waiting for Father…

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On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whilst the 2nd referendum betting moves more to NO

On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whilst the 2nd referendum betting moves more to NO

Live Betfair exchange odds monitoring from Betdata.io On Betfair punters rate it a 61% chance that 310-319 MPs will vote FOR tonight's confidence motion. It's a 97% chance that the government will survive — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2019 Tweet

After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?

The winning margin will set the baseline for future challenges The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in…

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Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th

To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties. I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote. It would be politically…

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On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes” for TMay’s deal slips five during the afternoon

On the spread betting markets the number of Brexit deal “ayes” for TMay’s deal slips five during the afternoon

For me the most satisfying, if risky, form of political gambling is on the spread betting markets where the more you are right with your prediction the more you win – with, alas, of the converse being the case. So on SportingIndex this afternoon there has been a lively market on who many MPs are going to vote “Aye” in the voting that starts in less than an hour. At 3pm you could have “sold” the number at 222 MPs…

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On this day lets not forget the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to the troubled province

On this day lets not forget the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to the troubled province

Wikipedia Let’s not forget either the DUP’s popularity within the province One of the issues with the politics Northern Ireland is that the Republican party, Sinn Fein, refuses to take up its seven seats at Westminster. This means that of the 18 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs. It also means that the only Westminster representation comes from a party that got just 36% of the vote there in June 2017. This makes the parliamentary representation…

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