Browsed by
Month: January 2019

New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

Comments 0 Comment

What’s least unpopular might be the way forward Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics and a regular guest on the PB/PollingMatters podcast has just produced the above survey for Bloomberg which finds that of the main options facing the UK leaving with the deal has the highest level of net acceptability. My chart above is based on his data. He notes: “Most polling on the Theresa May’s Brexit deal until now has focussed on which outcome to the process the…

Read More Read More

Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting

Govey maintaining and extending his lead in the next CON leader betting

Comments 0 Comment

Chart Betdata.io Given the precariousness of Theresa May’s position a new Tory leader contest could happen at just about any time. In one sense she is immune from pressure within the party until December because of the failed confidence vote that the rebels triggered and which Theresa May won with a clear margin. The rules state that a leader cannot be challenged again within 12 months but so much is happening at the moment you could see all sorts of…

Read More Read More

The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their late 70s to oust an incumbent in his mid-70s

The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their late 70s to oust an incumbent in his mid-70s

Comments 0 Comment

2020 GE:Biden 53% (+12)Trump 41%.Sanders 51% (+10)Trump 41%.Harris 48% (+7)Trump 41%.O'Rourke 47% (+6)Trump 41%.Warren 48% (+6)Trump 42%.Booker 47% (+5)Trump 42%.Gillibrand 47% (+5)Trump 42%@ppppolls 1/19-21https://t.co/MheHlB8QH6 — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 22, 2019 But Biden and Sanders head the polling We are going to see a lot of polling like this over the next 18 months as the Democratic party goes through the prolonged process of choosing who should be the one to block Trump’s second term. Joe Biden, of course, was…

Read More Read More

Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political betting even market ever

Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political betting even market ever

Comments 0 Comment

Lots of bookies of different sorts have ranges of markets on Brexit from PaddyPower’s “What foodstuffs will be rationed first in 2019?” to the above bet on whether or not the UK will leave the EU on March 29th. What’s been very striking is the level of activity which is building up sharply as we get closer to the date. The Betfair exchange is just about the only one which publishes in real time how much has been agreed on…

Read More Read More

With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

Comments 0 Comment

TMay’s dogged resolve could lead to more exits We are going through turbulent times and there’s little doubt that the next few weeks as we edge closer to March 29th are going to see dramatic developments which are going to be hard to predict. The main story in the Times this morning is that possibly up to 40 ministers could resign if CON MPs are banned from voting on plans to stop a no-deal Brexit. That such threats should be…

Read More Read More

Theresa May – the wrong woman for her time?

Theresa May – the wrong woman for her time?

Comments 0 Comment

So this is how constitutional settlements are brokered: not at a measured pace with Olympian detachment and the wisdom of Solomon but at high speed in a blind funk with a deal cobbled together in shadowy alcoves. It’s not pretty. It’s also something that the Prime Minister must hate. Successful governing politicians who have to answer to the electorate often try to avoid making hard choices. Angela Merkel has been so effective at this that her name has been verbed…

Read More Read More

Kamala Harris, betting favourite for the Democratic nomination, chooses today, Martin Luther King Day, to launch her campaign

Kamala Harris, betting favourite for the Democratic nomination, chooses today, Martin Luther King Day, to launch her campaign

Comments 0 Comment

JUST IN: @KamalaHarris on announcing she will be running for president in 2020: "I feel a responsibility to stand up and fight for who we are." https://t.co/qUX1sERxxZ pic.twitter.com/NcSHFTRIny — Good Morning America (@GMA) January 21, 2019 Will she be able to stop Trump? The big news in the 2020 White House race is that as expected, Kamala Harris has formally announced that she is running for the Democratic nomination, and of course, the presidency. In recent months her star has…

Read More Read More

Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMay successor

Why HealthSec Hancock should be factored in as a potential TMay successor

Comments 0 Comment

The ambitious Osborne protégé who wasn’t purged by Theresa Over the weekend I’ve been trying to look through other possible contenders for TMay’s job which might become vacant in a matter of weeks or a few months. Who are the dark horses who might be a good punt at long odds? Of all the Tory ministers who have been wheeled out recent weeks to argue the government’s Brexit position two of them, to my mind, stand out. One is the…

Read More Read More