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Month: October 2018

It looks as though third favourite, Bernie, will struggle to get into the 2020 White House race

It looks as though third favourite, Bernie, will struggle to get into the 2020 White House race

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Even though the next US presidential election is more than two years away potential contenders, particularly on the Democratic side, are already going through the machinations of preparing for a run – first for the party nomination then for the Presidency itself. The big surprise of the 2016 race was how successful Vermont Senator and socialist, Bernie Sanders, was in the fight for the Democratic nomination giving Hillary Clinton much harder fight than perhaps she had been expecting. The signs…

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Brexit: The three key concessions

Brexit: The three key concessions

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I have been wary of writing on Brexit. The vast majority of the visitors to this site are clearly informed – and informedly clear – with respect to their opinions on the matter. However, with Mike’s indulgence, I would like to pose some questions for discussion. The weakness of the British position now has little to do with the Parliamentary arithmetic. Indeed, as Alastair Meeks presciently wrote in July 2017, there can actually be negotiating strength in what he termed…

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Whoever the Dems choose to fight Trump at WH2020 will have to cope with the incumbent’s devastating nick name strategy

Whoever the Dems choose to fight Trump at WH2020 will have to cope with the incumbent’s devastating nick name strategy

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One of the things that the Elizabeth Warren DNA argument has highlighted is how successful Trump is at undermining anybody who is an opponent by the use of well thought out nicknames. These encapsulate the main negative and he uses the attack time and time again. Just remember from the 2016 nomination and election when we had,”Little Marco” , “Low energy” Bush, “Lying Ted” , and, of course, “Crooked Hillary”. Those all in their own way contributed to Trump’s victory….

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However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

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It’s getting messy.  In truth, that was always on the cards after the general election result.  The public in their wisdom delivered a Parliament with no overall majority, with two main parties both formally committed to implementing Brexit and neither sharing any kind of consensus over what that meant in practice.  Theresa May has spent the last 16 months navigating between competing interest groups, endlessly deferring decisions, endlessly conceding ground whenever short term coalitions formed against her and evading final…

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PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do

PB Video Analysis: Demographics – What We Can Do

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Demographics discussions can depress. The problems – ignored by most politicians – seem vast but distant. Better to let someone else, elected later, worry about them. But we can diminish the demographic drag. We just need to do a few things. Admittedly, we need politicians to do politically unpopular things. In this video, we look at what they are, and how they help. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet

The DUP are not as supportive of Brexit or as united as it might appear

The DUP are not as supportive of Brexit or as united as it might appear

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There’s a widespread assumption that the party that supports TMay’s minority government, the DUP with its 10 MPs, is rock solid in its view on Brexit and there’s no wiggle room. That perception is certainly a good bargaining chip for its relations with London but is this view correct? Could it be less united and less supportive of Brexit as might appear. Last night the person I go to on Northern Ireland politics who has proved to be solidly reliable…

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Who will be the face of the new £50 note?

Who will be the face of the new £50 note?

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Picture: The latest odds by Ladbrokes, others are available. In these highly partisan times I’d rule out any politician, with the exception of Clement Attlee. Attlee’s role in winning World War Two and setting up NATO & the NHS marks as him as a truly great politician that transcends normal politics. I expect the campaign to get Mrs Thatcher as the face of the new £50 note will be doomed despite her worthy qualities, sadly there’s parts of the country that would…

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Bercow going in the summer opens the way for a Buckingham by-election

Bercow going in the summer opens the way for a Buckingham by-election

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The yellows must fancy their chances in this Remain seat The news that John Bercow is bowing to the inevitable and planning to stand down in the summer opens up the prospect of what could be a humdinger of a by-election. For it is hard seeing him continuing as an MP when he ceases to be Speaker. There is a tradition of outgoing Speakers not staying around in the House and such a move by Bercow would follow recent precedents….

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