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Month: October 2018

Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

Trump’s massive midterms gamble has been to make it about himself. Now he needs to beat expectations

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Two weeks to go and Trump intensifies his campaigning We are now into the final fortnight of the crucial US midterm elections and the question is whether the Republicans can hold on to both parts of Congress. Certainly the Senate looks pretty strong because of the races that are up this year but holding the House of Representatives is going to be a huge challenge. Congressional generic polls have the Democrats with an average margin of 7.7% and individual local…

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In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June

In contrast to new reports of a TMay confidence move YouGov give her the highest best PM rating since early June

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Boost for the PM while the plotters plot This is getting so tiresome in sharp contrast to the PMs recovering poll ratings. It seems like every week at the moment hardline CON Brexiteers are briefing journos that they are very near to getting the 48 letters from MPs demanding a TMay conference vote. The fact that this hasn’t happened shows the weakness of those who want to get rid of her. For the vote to take place is one thing…

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A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

A Nation once again? – Part 3 lessons from abroad

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In the final of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs There are numerous examples of states being put together in modern times.  The closest and probably most studied is Germany. It is almost at 30 years since the wall came down so there is quite a period to look at. The situation is also not that dissimilar to Ireland  – a larger more prosperous neighbour takes over its sizeable but smaller struggling neighbour.  How has Germany fared? Unity is…

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A Nation once again?  Part 2 – Culture and politics

A Nation once again?  Part 2 – Culture and politics

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In the second of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs In the previous article I looked at economics which is quite a hurdle. This article looks at the longer term issue of the impact of putting two sets of people  together. In Ulster the past always lies ahead of us,  so somewhere along the line somebody needs to be squaring circles. The North, trapped in its history and with a victim mentality, somehow needs to fit in to a fast…

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A Nation once again ? – Part 1  The economics

A Nation once again ? – Part 1  The economics

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In the first of three articles Alanbrooke looks at Irish affairs The fallout from the Brexit vote has led to  more interest in the future of Northern Ireland than is usual. In particular the issue of a one state Ireland has bubbled back to the top of the political discussion with, as ever, strong views on either side The modern Irish state is not the Ireland of old; it is a successful, self-confident country which has worked its way to…

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Whatever the numbers today’s march will reinforce both CON and LAB anti-Brexit MPs

Whatever the numbers today’s march will reinforce both CON and LAB anti-Brexit MPs

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This’ll ratchet up the pressure for a “People’s vote” Inevitably there are massively different estimates of how many people have been marching in London today against Brexit but judging by the TV pictures it does seem to be very large. Whether it’s up to the anti Iraq war demonstrations of 2003 I don’t know but it’s still pretty substantial. The organisers are lucky that it is commanding a lot of attention by the media and the pro-Brexiteers who have been…

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Corbyn’s gift to the Tories and Mrs May – his boycott of the House of Lords

Corbyn’s gift to the Tories and Mrs May – his boycott of the House of Lords

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The balance in the Upper House has silently trended towards the blues Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t like the House of Lords and as with many things he doesn’t like, he’s gone out of his way to avoid engaging with it. When he was first running for the Labour leadership, he promised that he wouldn’t nominate any new Labour peers. That was understandable for someone who has long opposed the nature of the undemocratic upper House, and for someone who’s always believed…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Will May reach and deal and can she get it through parliament if she does?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Will May reach and deal and can she get it through parliament if she does?

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This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts: In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by Peter McLeod (Vice President at pollster GQR) to explore what the public think of “Chequers” and what they expect from any Brexit deal May brings back. It turns out that Chequers is more popular than you might think in the right context – but is that the context the Prime Minister’s eventual deal will ultimately be seen in? Keiran and…

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