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Month: February 2018

Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

Poll shows Leave voters would stay mostly solid even if Brexit hurts economy, their finances and the NHS

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Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward. The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical. Such things were said during the referendum campaign itself and Leaver voters, clearly, were not taken aback then. So why should we be surprised when more than a year before Brexit those who voted that way should feel…

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The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

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Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4 — PolitiStatsUK (@PolitiStatsUK) February 10, 2018 I’ve just come across the above chart which shows an interesting picture of vote movements in council by-elections since GE17. Clearly the collapse of UKIP is having a big impact and in almost every segment of seats, based on the defending party, LAB, CON and the LDs have moved forward. What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats…

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The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

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In some ways, the 2017 election went as expected for the Conservative party. When the election was called on 18 April, the seven polls that had been published so far that month had averaged 43.3%. When the election was held on 8 June, the Conservatives tallied 42.4%. Any soothsayer would have been happy with that degree of accuracy. This represented a net increase of 5.5% of the vote share on the 2015 result. Clearly the Conservative message gathered new recruits….

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Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

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This has only been picked up by YouGov With the apparent sharpish shifts that we’ve seen in recent days in the polls to the Conservatives there has, inevitably, been a lot of examination of the detailed data. One thing that’s featured is there’s said to have been a noticeable move by women voters from LAB to CON who, in recent times, have mostly leaned more to Labour. This has led to a lot of speculation as to why this has…

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The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

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Why Don Brind thinks he shouldn’t be David Mars is a Labour MP worried about the state of his party and at odds with his leader. Described as a “frustrated but hard-working member of the shadow cabinet” the central character in tonight’s BBC2 thriller Collateral “despairs at the state of the Labour Party and many of its policies .. he’s not afraid to be outspoken and on more than one occasion he finds himself in hot water with the party…

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None of the Above takes 44% lead in new CON leadership poll

None of the Above takes 44% lead in new CON leadership poll

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With a new week opening and Mrs Msy still there at number 10 there is a new poll out in the Independent on who voters think should be her successor. The outcome is far from decisive for although Johnson has a lead he is 44% behind the number saying none of the above. This really reflects the situation we have known since July the 9th after Theresa May failed to retain the Conservative majority in the general election. Her situation…

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Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction

Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction

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Well this is how bad Mrs May's indecision over Brexit is, some Tory MPs want her to bring back Nick Timothy. Top scoop as usual from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/OM7N4jXzRO pic.twitter.com/oAoe2tWbZP — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 11, 2018 It is clear that whatever decision makes on Brexit it will likely hasten Mrs May’s departure. The Sunday Times say The standard bearer of the hardliners, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has privately told colleagues he would be a lot more relaxed “if we knew what we were…

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