Higham Ferrers on Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,414 (57% -3% on last time), Lab 557 (22% +3% on last time), Lib Dem 336 (13% +2% on last time), UKIP 109 (4% -6% on last time), Green 81 (3%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 857 (35%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab Higham Ferrers, Lancaster on East Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 611 (56%), Lib Dem 244 (22%), Lab 189 (17%), Green…
New YouGov poll has LAB back in the leadCON 40% -2LAB 41%+3LD 8%=UKIP 4%+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 And the female split is with the red team once again Unlike last week which had big move to CON amongst women latest YouGov has females leading LAB by 8%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 One of the things that always seems to happen is that when a shock poll comes out it that people try to…
Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural. The boundary between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not come in that category. There are few obvious natural boundaries along the route. Donegal is almost cut off from the rest of…
Big night of local elections in prospect. 14 seats with nearly 90k eligible to vote. Excellent here from @andrewteale https://t.co/AyLxTgrRGX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2018 Will tonight’s results reinforce polls view of a shift to CON? The 14 seats in almost all parts of the country feature 7 CON defences; 4 LAB ones + UKIP, SNP & a local Residents’s group a seat apiece. So we are like to get a relatively good picture. It is highly unusual…
Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term. We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour…
You can get better odds on JRM as next PM I’ve not bet on Moggy for next CON leader because I still don’t think that he’d get to the final membership ballot round of a leadership contest. As the chart show he’s now soared on the Betfair exchange. The other big question mark is whether there will be an early contest and that is far from clear especially given current CON poll ratings and TMay’s huge resilience. She is still…
Britain's interest in Europe appears to rise (and fall) when the Conservatives are in (and out) of government. @ipsosmori pic.twitter.com/DKlfcFIepI — Alistair McQueen (@HelloMcQueen) February 14, 2018 Polls show that concerns about Europe/EU are linked to whether the Tories are in power or not I like the above chart which makes a strong point that the EU becomes an issue amongst voters when the Tories are in power. The data comes from the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which those sampled…
Betdata.io Moggy is still dazzling the markets I had a thought before the Foreign Secretary’s big Brexit speech that there might be a case for putting a small amount on him on Betfair’s next Conservative leader market. Generally betting can respond to news coverage and clearly Mr Johnson is going to get a lot of that today. Only problem, looking at the chart, is that what betting movement there has been has not gone to Mr Johnson but to Mr…