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Month: January 2018

For the first time since August the YouGov Brexit tracker has referendum “right” in the lead

For the first time since August the YouGov Brexit tracker has referendum “right” in the lead

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A blip or a trend? Ask PB regulars will know I make a point of reporting the YouGov Brexit tracker which is the one that has the most data points and for which we have a detailed records going back right to the referendum. After a phase since August when all the polls found that “wrong to leave EU” was in the lead the latest from YouGov, with fieldwork this week, has right back ahead. Basically what this shows is…

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Bad night for LAB in latest local elections losing a seat to CON in one of its heartlands

Bad night for LAB in latest local elections losing a seat to CON in one of its heartlands

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Hulton on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 1,455 (49% +16% on last time), Lab 1,179 (40% +3% on last time), UKIP 190 (6% -18% on last time), Lib Dem 67 (2% unchanged on last time), Green 52 (2% -1% on last time) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 276 (9%) on a swing of 6.5% from Lab to Con Newport Pagnell North and Hanslope on Milton Keynes (Con defence) Result: Con 1,604 (53% +15% on last time), Lab…

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Trump ends his first year in the White House with punters giving him a 60% chance staying till 2020 or later

Trump ends his first year in the White House with punters giving him a 60% chance staying till 2020 or later

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With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House? These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival…

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Laura Pidcock – the 33/1 newbie MP who is being tipped as Corbyn’s successor

Laura Pidcock – the 33/1 newbie MP who is being tipped as Corbyn’s successor

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A small flutter might be worthwhile Following what was perceived to be a success at the last general election, although Labour finished 58 seats behind, there have been few questions about the future of Jeremy Corbyn. He looks pretty secure and the biggest issue he faces is that he will be in his early 70s if the next election does take place, as planned, in 2022. Will LAB want to go into the election with their flag carrier being in…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Vote blue go green? Farage, Boris & 2nd referendums (again) plus Labour NEC election fallout

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran and Leo continue with the new format of the show where each guest chooses a news story that has interested them from the past week and provides some polling analysis on a key issue of the day. Topics discussed this week include: 1) What the Tories’ new focus on environmental issues says about their brand and future electoral strategy 2) Why Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are indicating support for another referendum on Brexit and…

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Alastair Meeks recommends his approach to baldness as Britain’s best post-Brexit strategy

Alastair Meeks recommends his approach to baldness as Britain’s best post-Brexit strategy

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The 1970s were my best decade for hair production.  My parents have pictures of me at a young age in lurid paisley colours with an Osmond-like hair helmet.  Those pictures are safely under lock and key. By the mid-90s, I was in remedial trichology.  My hairline was under assault from above and below: my scalp was covered by only a sketchy film of strands.  It was time to take stock.  I took the advice of Quentin Crisp on the subject:…

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Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

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New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 YouGov Times Scotland poll finds Support for independence dwindles https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/uzI4z5RDZb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 But they should still be top party at Holyrood We get so few Scotland only polls these days that when a new one comes out,…

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